A very global idea for the development of BTC in 2018
A quick dabble to illustrate why another dip is not only likely, but almost necessary. To around 9400 would be the best combination of desirable and likely. 9K is good too, anything below might scare off too many retail investors. Long term targets remain positive. Elliot Wave levels are more or less a copy of the previous one, but timeline is extended. Patience is key. I don't believe the rise to 19K will be repeated this quickly again.
The Fib treats the top to a possible 9400 as one retracement. It is used more as a guide here. I try to keep the focus on trends and simplicity. I believe most of the chart is self explanatory. Let me know if you have any questions.
What we really need to see is a pick up in volume. Without volume everything is out of the window. Not just trade volume (that can increase by high-frequency trading alone) but a real increase in both volume and market cap. Currently the biggest threat to BTC is the reluctance of new capital to enter the market. A final correction to 9.x could ignite a new fire. A long period of stability could create a slow but stable increase in demand. Quick rises will only enable large players to exit to fiat and ultimately make BTC a lame duck.
We also need to learn how BTC behaves now that we are in the era of billion dollar market caps, futures, high media exposure, many high market cap alts, big exchanges, etc. All this wasn't there before, so maybe past behaviour is less of an indicator of future behaviour nowadays.
The numbers and timelines are of course indications but they do lead to a price level that I think is realistic for end of 2018. Your trades are your own, so please don't see this as trading advice.
So, in summary: not advice, not an expert and actually my first time publishing an idea here. I do believe that if patterns seems to be aligned, there must be some truth to it. I also realise we see patterns wherever we want to see them. Please shoot and critique it and don't hold back. The only way to learn.
Cheers!
The Fib treats the top to a possible 9400 as one retracement. It is used more as a guide here. I try to keep the focus on trends and simplicity. I believe most of the chart is self explanatory. Let me know if you have any questions.
What we really need to see is a pick up in volume. Without volume everything is out of the window. Not just trade volume (that can increase by high-frequency trading alone) but a real increase in both volume and market cap. Currently the biggest threat to BTC is the reluctance of new capital to enter the market. A final correction to 9.x could ignite a new fire. A long period of stability could create a slow but stable increase in demand. Quick rises will only enable large players to exit to fiat and ultimately make BTC a lame duck.
We also need to learn how BTC behaves now that we are in the era of billion dollar market caps, futures, high media exposure, many high market cap alts, big exchanges, etc. All this wasn't there before, so maybe past behaviour is less of an indicator of future behaviour nowadays.
The numbers and timelines are of course indications but they do lead to a price level that I think is realistic for end of 2018. Your trades are your own, so please don't see this as trading advice.
So, in summary: not advice, not an expert and actually my first time publishing an idea here. I do believe that if patterns seems to be aligned, there must be some truth to it. I also realise we see patterns wherever we want to see them. Please shoot and critique it and don't hold back. The only way to learn.
Cheers!
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