Adding to position on BTCUSD as we are still below 7300

23 thg 4, 2020

So continuing from my previous post we had broken out to the positive side of the smaller pennant at the upper bound price 6972 (although it did dip back down before doing the full breakout...just a reminder that there is no such thing as a sure thing even if it has worked in the past).

It looks like we have hit a temporary support and resistance level between 7070 - 7170 so I have added to the short with the stop loss still at just above 7300 in where I would re-evaluate where we are going mid-term.

From fundamentals, in a really simplified way, I think people are not spending regardless of how much money people have. Social distancing cannot be eased easily, the numbers for COVID-19 have not quite hit the peak from public sources and the only reason the markets are increasing or staying at a steady level is due to central banks propping it up.

The counter to this argument is (IMO has a very low chance):

• We will find a quick fix to minimise the mortality rate which will change peoples minds about spending their money
  
• People will buy BTCUSD with their stimulus money (including businesses) and the DJI will lower correlation with BTCUSD
  
• Online shopping will have a crazy increase in sales
  
• Social distancing gets lifted and things return to normal (even for a short period to fake everyone out)
  

I always try and keep an open mind to the counter-argument so let's see what happens.

Maintain or gain