Well my $68k target was missed. This is a matter of timing and overenthusiasm. One of my biggest faults is being too aggressive on timings when looking doing TA at a micro level.
The trade was to $68k by Friday and I had assumed the retest into circ. $61,300 support was good enough but the true test was at $60k.
- Learning from this exercise - Timing the BTC dominance bottoms and tops is pretty challenging and the best way is to pick up the trend as the trend becomes clear. Remaining in ALTs outside of one BTC Leveraged Long.
I'm not entertaining a short position right now unless we break and hold below $60k (for me 20% probability):
- Break of previous ATH
- 1 month consolidation before move up
- Market continues to scale
- Folk have finally dismissed the PI cycle - although I keep this out of curiosity as the logic is potentially sound, just the treatment in this cycle is wrong.
- Potential future short catalysts - Doge looking like the next Bitconnect :)
Best, Hard Forky
The trade was to $68k by Friday and I had assumed the retest into circ. $61,300 support was good enough but the true test was at $60k.
- Learning from this exercise - Timing the BTC dominance bottoms and tops is pretty challenging and the best way is to pick up the trend as the trend becomes clear. Remaining in ALTs outside of one BTC Leveraged Long.
I'm not entertaining a short position right now unless we break and hold below $60k (for me 20% probability):
- Break of previous ATH
- 1 month consolidation before move up
- Market continues to scale
- Folk have finally dismissed the PI cycle - although I keep this out of curiosity as the logic is potentially sound, just the treatment in this cycle is wrong.
- Potential future short catalysts - Doge looking like the next Bitconnect :)
Best, Hard Forky
