BTC futures market has shown the direction. More down this month

12 thg 9, 2018

I haven't posted in a while. Just been a bit busy with life.

There hasn't been much going on in the last couple days with the price seemingly rangebound. It seems like Bitmex is trying to push the price down and Bitfinex is fighting it. Most of the move down from $7400 has been started by Bitmex (through Bitstamp). Bitmex futures closes on the last Friday of the month which is the 28th and their chosen direction seems to be down for this month. Futures closed at around $6300 last month.

So without looking at any charts, I would expect the price to drop or be lower than $6300 on around the 28th. Probably a good time to buy (vs now) for longer term holders and swing traders. Though something to be aware of is that we could also have another month of downtrend like in May/June and close even lower at the end of October.

The chart above shows my theory. Yellow regions are when futures closed at the end of each month and the price always closed significantly higher or lower than the previous month. Blue regions are where the trend for the month was rejected. Hence why I think we are going down especially since Bitmex is driving the price down now.

13 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

These two areas are the key resistance zones right now. The fib retracements of the wave down from $7400 and the wave up from $6120 are very close. So it makes it a lot harder to break through. However if it does break and hold it becomes a strong support so there should be opportunity to trade.

13 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

It's looking good for a short term move up. The first resistance broke and is now supporting a move up. I bought after it came back and retested/held at $6430 in the yellow region. Will hold until things turn sour again as we should good for a few percent up now.

13 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

Heikin Ashi also shows that bearish momentum has slowed over the last few days and bulls have taken over for now.

14 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

Retested and bounced nicely from the two fibs. Will be very bullish short term if $6500 holds for today. I'd then assume it has enough power to break above the $6620/$6650 resistance. I'm looking to hold and ride this wave up for as long as possible.

14 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

I'm still bearish in the medium term and expect a lower price than $6300 when futures closes on the 28th. However that is still 2 weeks away so there's no harm in trading the short term waves.

14 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

Broke down now. That's why it's important to either watch it all the time or have stops. Managed to get out with profit but it was touch and go. It just smashed through the supports so it's important to see whether it can get back above $6460 and hold there again. With this sort of breakdown normally $6460 will now be resistance and tough to crack again, unless it rebounds right away.

15 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

Still looking ok for a bit more upwards. I got back in at $6460 when it retested and held. It needs to break $6600 and start pushing up against the $6620 resistance zone soon though otherwise this move up will run out of steam. We can't go sideways at $6550 for too long.

19 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

There's a head and shoulders forming with a base at $6200 which could take us below $6000 for starters. Should know today as we'll be hitting diagonal resistance in a few hours. I made a couple trades based on fibs in the last few days. The fibs right now seem like the best way to make sense of what's going on in the short term.

There is quadruple fib resistance in the $6400 region so I don't see us breaking that and going to $6500 anytime soon. The double fib support at around $6200 is also going to be hit again soon I think. $6360 and $6300 are also important levels but $6200 is the one to break for full bear mode.

19 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

Close enough. The price is hard to see because it's behind my drawing.

25 thg 9, 2018

Ghi chú

Current thoughts. Just needs to hold the $6360 level. Seems like a fractal.