BTC & S&P Correlation, Halving and The Composite man.
To start i'd like to give the definition of the theory of The Composite man...
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
Its with this in mind I think about the recent price action and weird behaviour of BTC. Price has been rallying on low volume and swiftly smashing back down with high volume wicks. A sure bearish sign... yet here we are... ever-increasing. This low vol & low liquidity allows for massive price spikes with little or no retail interest except those interested in hopping on a wick and riding it up for a quick entry exit profit and perhaps flipping to a short to ride it back down.
Its also with this in mind I think about new people entering the market, those furloughed workers, sitting at home receiving some benefit cheques with a bit of savings worried how long this thing will last and will they have work to go back to. Theyre maybe thinking they can take their savings, lump in btc and earn dark money on the side will having their basics covered by whatever government assistance they are receiving. These types have no idea what a short is, they are the definition of holders, fish. If they've entered the market they probably already bought in.
So its got me thinking.... Maybe composite man is going to let the market run-up a little further, enticing more in, running the price up the price to 9-10k...
If anyone has data on new money entering the market of new accounts at the big exchanges i'd be desperate to know it...
The direction I'm thinking is, if enough noobs/have entered and bought up, composite man could easily crash from here, but maybe he leaves it another few weeks or a month... enough to let the S&P go sideways for a bit then crash mercilessly bringing BTC with it and forcing mass noobie capitulation...
The point is, composite man is not going to let these noobs, into the market at this price and not force the capitulation of the majority of them.
It is at the stage after the crash... when the rebound happens for both BTC and S&P (they are correlated remember) that when S&P starts to come back down folk will sell and composite man(whales) will buy up more BTC forcing the decoupling of BT and traditional markets.
Do with this theory what you will... its not trading advise.. just thoughts...
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
Its with this in mind I think about the recent price action and weird behaviour of BTC. Price has been rallying on low volume and swiftly smashing back down with high volume wicks. A sure bearish sign... yet here we are... ever-increasing. This low vol & low liquidity allows for massive price spikes with little or no retail interest except those interested in hopping on a wick and riding it up for a quick entry exit profit and perhaps flipping to a short to ride it back down.
Its also with this in mind I think about new people entering the market, those furloughed workers, sitting at home receiving some benefit cheques with a bit of savings worried how long this thing will last and will they have work to go back to. Theyre maybe thinking they can take their savings, lump in btc and earn dark money on the side will having their basics covered by whatever government assistance they are receiving. These types have no idea what a short is, they are the definition of holders, fish. If they've entered the market they probably already bought in.
So its got me thinking.... Maybe composite man is going to let the market run-up a little further, enticing more in, running the price up the price to 9-10k...
If anyone has data on new money entering the market of new accounts at the big exchanges i'd be desperate to know it...
The direction I'm thinking is, if enough noobs/have entered and bought up, composite man could easily crash from here, but maybe he leaves it another few weeks or a month... enough to let the S&P go sideways for a bit then crash mercilessly bringing BTC with it and forcing mass noobie capitulation...
The point is, composite man is not going to let these noobs, into the market at this price and not force the capitulation of the majority of them.
It is at the stage after the crash... when the rebound happens for both BTC and S&P (they are correlated remember) that when S&P starts to come back down folk will sell and composite man(whales) will buy up more BTC forcing the decoupling of BT and traditional markets.
Do with this theory what you will... its not trading advise.. just thoughts...
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