Update: I wasn't bearish enough on $BTC, $48-$52k coming soon

5 thg 6

Turns out after analyzing the chart again, I wasn't bearish enough on BTC. In my last idea, I thought we would move down to 57k, while I still think that's likely, I wasn't bearish enough because I think the risk is actually to 48K-52k (which I don't think anyone is expecting, especially here).

Everyone calling for 72k to break which creates a short squeeze higher, but I don't think anyone is expecting a fall below the May low...

If you look at price action, it's very similar to the top that formed around May of 2021. The week that sent price from 60k back to 33k. Then we went on to form one more high in November for the final top.

While I don't think the exact same thing will happen, I do think something similar is going to happen. I think we'll see price move down to the 48K-52k support which still hasn't been retested. After that, the possibility opens up to go to the upper resistance levels.

I think the move is likely to happen in the next two weeks - four weeks. Tighten stops if you're long and watch price action closely, because if the move happens, it's not going to give you a chance to get out.

Alts will get slaughtered.

6 thg 6

Ghi chú

Low timeframe H&S top forming. Needs to break this $70.5-70.6k level to get some legs to the downside.

7 thg 6

Ghi chú

Price recaptured the structure. I lean towards higher tomorrow, then down Sunday-Tuesday.

7 thg 6

Ghi chú

Welp, price moved up and now back to a key support level. Either we hold this same level or going lower.

I think major downside comes early next week, but not sure where we go before that.

7 thg 6

Ghi chú

And so it begins...

8 thg 6

Ghi chú

I could see the possibility of BTC making one large move up to the 73K resistance before the move down

9 thg 6

Ghi chú

Other possibility is it only gets up to 70.7k. Watch for a rejection there.

10 thg 6

Ghi chú

Welp, super weak can't even get up there. In cash waiting for a direction

10 thg 6

Ghi chú

Tons of chop, I could see more upside again maybe to that 70.7k or 73K target. Let's see if we get it tomorrow.

11 thg 6

Ghi chú

Welp, looks like we just want to head down. In cash.

12 thg 6

Ghi chú

Despite initial reaction to CPI being positive, I'm not taking any longs here.

Price still needs to clear resistances and it already looks overbought on lower timeframes combined with ichimoku not looking like price should continue higher here.

There will be plenty of time to position long if we see a sustained move up, but the chart needs to prove it to me.

14 thg 6

Ghi chú

If price holds here, going to invalidate this idea and flip long. Already went long on CRV as price hit the bottom of my chart.

Think we could see a reversal higher in bitcoin coming soon.

17 thg 6

Ghi chú

Lower it is. Let's see where price can find some support Took profits on CRV too as it was up 20% since entry.

24 thg 6

Ghi chú

Could see the possibility of one more bounce here before the final move down. Let's see if it gets back up to $62-66k

28 thg 6

Ghi chú

Welp looks to have rejected at 62k. Market looks extremely heavy and there's some bad news that got released. Wouldn't be surprised to see the bottom get hit next week.

I'm in cash, alts look horrible and could see another 30-50% declines from here.

8 thg 7

Ghi chú

Still think we'll hit the bottom target despite the recent bounce

10 thg 7

Ghi chú

The more and more I look at the chart on higher timeframes, the more I think we've topped for the cycle.

We're seeing a flat red heikin ashi 1M candle in July. Unless price can take out 65K by the end of the month, probability favors continuation to the downside.

I think it's likely that we'll see a bounce after the bottom gets tagged, but I now think it's unlikely that we see new highs.

24 thg 7

Ghi chú

Still think 48K is coming soon. Next pivot on the chart likely leads to bounce higher.

Think it's likely to get tagged in the next 2 weeks.

Bull market = over. Don't let the bounce in August change your bias.