There are 4 patterns/indicators that suggest that BTC could drop further to between 28k -> 27k.
1. Head and shoulders.
- It is common for the drop following a head and shoulders to be roughly the same as the rise from the neckline to the top of the head. This was 39%. If we take 49% down from the neckline, this results in a price of 28.5k
2. Previous support
- On its way up to its high of $65k, the price of BTC dropped from 41k to 28.7k. It is possible that we could bounce back off this line as a line of support.
3. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
- Drawing the fibonacci retracement lines from the March 2020 bottom at 3,858 up to the high at 64.9k, we can identify the 0.618 'golden-ratio' fibonacci retracement to be at 27.2k. A wick down to the 0.618 is not uncommon
4. In addition - the EMA cross is approaching with the 50 and 200 converging in a few days time. This is typically a bearish indicator.
Note: I do not believe the bull market is over. The market is still making higher lows, and a drop to the 0.618 is no exception to that. Even a drop to the 0.702 would not invalidate the bull market case.
1. Head and shoulders.
- It is common for the drop following a head and shoulders to be roughly the same as the rise from the neckline to the top of the head. This was 39%. If we take 49% down from the neckline, this results in a price of 28.5k
2. Previous support
- On its way up to its high of $65k, the price of BTC dropped from 41k to 28.7k. It is possible that we could bounce back off this line as a line of support.
3. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
- Drawing the fibonacci retracement lines from the March 2020 bottom at 3,858 up to the high at 64.9k, we can identify the 0.618 'golden-ratio' fibonacci retracement to be at 27.2k. A wick down to the 0.618 is not uncommon
4. In addition - the EMA cross is approaching with the 50 and 200 converging in a few days time. This is typically a bearish indicator.
Note: I do not believe the bull market is over. The market is still making higher lows, and a drop to the 0.618 is no exception to that. Even a drop to the 0.702 would not invalidate the bull market case.
Bình luận:
Typo, that's supposed to say 39% down, not 49% down.