Before Trading BTC take a look at this analysis

27 thg 1

Today, we stand at a critical juncture in the trajectory of BTCUSD, poised to decipher its next move amidst the ebbs and flows of the market. As seasoned analysts, we recognize the inherent rhythm within charts, often echoing patterns of the past. Thus, it begs the question: Have we traversed a similar terrain before with this trading pair? The answer resounds: Yes, indeed. Allow me to elucidate.

Cast your gaze upon the annals of history, specifically the epochs spanning 2017-2019 and the more recent epoch of 2020-2024. Within these chronicles lie valuable insights encapsulated within the following visual representations:

(2017-2019)


(2020-2024)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kJP50Olc/

There are some similarities and differences that can be observed at the highs 2017-2019 and 2020- 2024 respectfully {

Similarities:

Where prices were trying to reach the all time highs of 2017. During this time prices rose to the 0.618 Fibonacci levels drawn from the ATH 2017 to the second dip of the lows (Gann). However after prices did reach 0.618, they started to make new local lows.

However we must not forget there are some differences:

Between the two highs 2017-2019, it took 560 days.

Between the two highs 2021-2024, it took 791 days.

during Feb 2020 COVID-19 caused equities to dip and the crypto market dipped with it prolonging the recovery.


How do we trade this?

Considering the increasing prevalence of ETFs, it is my assessment that we are less likely to encounter a dip reminiscent of the events of 2020, which were precipitated by the onset of COVID-19. However, prudence dictates that we await confirmation before engaging in any trades. In the event that BTC breaches the 44k mark, slightly exceeding the 0.5 Fibonacci level, I recommend setting a Stop Loss at 42.5k to mitigate potential risks while capitalizing on the upward momentum.

From a technical perspective, the recent surge in the cryptocurrency market underscores growing institutional interest in this asset class. The notable influx of funds into Grayscale serves as a clear indicator of this evolving trend. Additionally, my previous analysis, as outlined [here], anticipated the peak of the crypto market, further validating the efficacy of technical analysis.

Furthermore, it is essential to acknowledge the concept of alternation in market trends. While historical data offers valuable insights, it does not guarantee future outcomes. Therefore, it is incumbent upon us to exercise prudence and develop sound trading strategies tailored to our individual risk profiles.

In conclusion, let us proceed with caution, leveraging our expertise to navigate the complexities of the market landscape.

8 thg 2

Ghi chú

Congrats traders! we hit 44k and blasted past it. We will break all time highs by April. We have been seeing a steady inflow in ETFs. this bull market will be unlike any of the previous bull markets. I hope everyone is ready for this ride. next target is 48k. I am long for now until I see a break in pattern but the only direction I see us going is UP!

18 thg 2

Ghi chú

We are seeing alot of FUD along with good news. Its ironic, when the market was at 42k at the beginning of this analysis, everyone was calling for a dump before the halving. Historically, that has been the case. However 4 years ago during the pre-bull market we had to deal with COVID. I do not see a black swan event coming- but hey its a black swan so its meant to be not seen until it happens. The fact is that we are seeing massive inflows into ETFs. I am speculating that ETH will outperform BTC once we break ATH while rallying gaining more than BTC. Usually BTC bulls hedge to altcoins during big runs. While we are expecting the ETH ETF to get approved by May, my belief is that these events will align together. BTC next target is 57K and then consolidation for the next run.

9 thg 3

Ghi chú

Hello Traders, As we predicted, everything turned out the way we predicted. when everyone was predicted BTC going lower after the correction at ~45k lower, we predicted it would indeed go higher. If you would have listened you could have made exponential gains. For I, have had options contracts on crypto since 2 months ago and my returns have been satisfying. Did I sell? no. Will I sell? Of course! its the best part of trading- making realized money. Now the best part of this is when will I sell? well, considering that I do see this run going on until next year, if i was a long term holder I would tell you to hold for now until 9-12 months into the future. However, due to me buying an option I chose to pick a top based on the highest top I believe we can reach until we consolidate.

Based on previous trends and their relative levels + time analysis It has come to my attention that the best top to sell in the next six months is in the middle of the month of MAY. See it for yourself. however, we will most likely go higher but that is my stop point. I believe by then BTC will be around 95K.

Unpredictable events can always happen. Pay close attention to banks and how BTFP will materialize. I believe there will be a lag until we see anything that will gain attention if any.

NVIDIA + AI have been the narrative. watch the narrative change in the coming weeks. its always interesting to see how the powers that be control the agenda to affect our reality. Be safe!

Enjoy the ride and happy trading