BTC/USD: Long Term Elliott Wave Cycle 1W (Aug. 04)

4 thg 8, 2020

X Force Global Analysis:


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In this analysis, we look at Bitcoin's logarithmic chart on the weekly, and analyze the charts using the Elliott Wave theory.

Analysis

- To begin with, we can first draw the fibonacci channel to identify significant levels of support and resistance
- Starting from November 2011, Bitcoin has been creating a series of impulse and corrective waves
- Within the supercycle, marked in green, it could be argued that Bitcoin is on its last impulse wave (12345)
- Cycle waves, marked in yellow, show clear impulse and corrective waves.
- There are two things to note regarding the cycle: the length of the cycle and its degree
- We can notice that the length of the cycle (whether it be a bullish rally or a corrective phase) extends as time passes
- As such, for the last supercycle wave, we could expect a long lasting extended bullish rally
- Secondly, the trend degree starts steep, but slowly flattens out throughout time
- This is natural considering the fact that the chart is a logarithmic chart

Market Sentiment:

Long short ratios remain at 71 to 29, with significantly more long positions than short positions. The overall trend for the mid-long term is very bullish.

What We Believe

We believe that Bitcoin may be on its way for a mega bullish rally, possibly even similar to the one we have witnessed in 2017. However, based on past price history, this bullish rally might play out slowly through an extended period of time.

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