Parabolic SAR and MACD Suggest Multi-Month Bull Move in BTC

28 thg 1, 2020

The Parabolic SAR and MACD on the weekly scale have generated reliable signals on intermediate to long timeframe moves (6 to 12 months) for Bitcoin (BTC/USD). SAR turned bullish on the weekly on January 6th after breaking $7900 and I went long from there up to the $9000 level as documented in my first TradingView post. SAR is still long and I anticipate it to remain this way for several weeks and perhaps months - it generates very few false signals with parabolic markets (like bitcoin) as you can see on the chart.

This week, starting Jan 27th 2020, the MACD has followed SAR in turning bullish on the weekly timeframe. On the chart, I have marked the most recent and decisive buy/sell signals on the MACD which can be seen alongside the trend changes indicated by the stop and reverse points. As we can see, these signals have been very reliable indicators for sustained moves in BTC on high timeframes, generating buy/sell signals that last several months at a time.

While I generally do not trade off of these indicators alone, I believe they are potentially providing strong evidence of a multi-month bull move beginning in Bitcoin. I am long at spot with a cost basis around 8.5k and am looking for a move near all time highs within the next 6-12 months before a more significant consolidation/corrective period. Shouts out to Sawcruhteez and the late, great Tyler Jenks for putting together the Lucid SAR, based on Welles Wilder's original formula. Let's see if these indicators continue to provide a reliable signal over the ensuing months. Happy trading and may we all learn much together in the new decade!