"BTC/USD" Some possible scenarios

After the 20000 usd run and the 70% retracement (6000 usd), btc rose to 12000 usd and retraced again. Is the retracement finished?
Well, now we have different scenarios:
1) correction isn't finished, so the price could drop to the red rectangle (8500-8000 usd). Look at the RSI. If price drops to the red rectangle, rsi will drop to the red circlo-->oversold and could start a bull run. The price will reach the same level of the green rectangle or can raise up to the big resistance (big red rectangle). This is an important level. To see a bullish trend, btc has to break the red rectangle and the downtrend line (yellow dashed line).
2) btc could reach 11000-11200 usd, the drop to the 0.382 level of Fibonacci, or drop to the red rectangle= level 0.618 of Fibonacci. After the correction, will pump and will try to break the yellow dashed line. (BLUE ABC)
3) Btc will break the yellow dashed line and will retest the big resistance (big red rectangle). After this i expect a retracement to the green rectangle and then we will see a bull run. (GREEN ABC).

In the chart I see some patterns and figures. It's hard to say what btc will do in the next hours, you have to watch volumes, rsi and other stuffs.
Keep your eyes on rsi: if price drops and rsi drops to the red circle, would be a good opportunity to buy.
I see a round bottom and a cup&handle in formation. These are bullish figures.
Most important things: btc has to break the downtrend line (yellow dashed line) and has to break the big red rectangle: it's an huge resistance; if btc won't break it with huge volume, the price will drop again.
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