Continued wait-and-see is the prevailing sentiment
US economic data for October was strong and market expectations for the Fed rate meeting on 8 November fell significantly. Currently, based on the price of 30-day federal funds futures, the market's expected probability of the next rate cut of 25Bp is 85%, and the expected probability of no rate cut is 15%, this data is significantly lower than last month.
Meanwhile, the predicted probability of a Trump presidency has been rising significantly in recent days, with the scales tipping in Trump's favour for the 5 November US election.
Looking at the options data, the market has low volatility expectations for October, with the flat IV already below 45% for the month and 55% for the November 8 expiry a week later.
This suggests that most market participants are cautious about betting on the month, and continued wait-and-see is the prevailing sentiment.
Meanwhile, the predicted probability of a Trump presidency has been rising significantly in recent days, with the scales tipping in Trump's favour for the 5 November US election.
Looking at the options data, the market has low volatility expectations for October, with the flat IV already below 45% for the month and 55% for the November 8 expiry a week later.
This suggests that most market participants are cautious about betting on the month, and continued wait-and-see is the prevailing sentiment.
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