BTCUSD to ~42k?

2 thg 4, 2021

I love bitcoin, but this run is looking pretty tired. The top may come soon - in the next few weeks as the coinbase IPO comes out. However, technically I see a lot of things getting weak in this chart. First, the bearish divergence between the RSI making lower highs while BTCUSD made higher highs. Next, we have a MACD that while turning up recently seems to be more tepid that the previous advances. In other words, buyers seem to be getting tired. I think we could find our way to the ~~ 42k range (or possibly even 30k, a full 50% retracement), lets say in the next month or two. To me, this shorter term view looks like we're heading down. Some decent mechanisms to play short include puts on MSTR, RIOT, MARA, CAN, BTBT.

Ultimately I think this 59k level is the real test, but if you wanted to give some room, I would say if we confidently moved north of 62k this idea is wrong. otherwise my target remains 42k.

13 thg 4, 2021

Ghi chú

looks like the COIN ipo is driving this up higher. if we hold over 62k tomorrow, I admit defeat and think this opens up for significant upside moves.

10 thg 5, 2021

Ghi chú

This trade is still active. Pretty big rejection from the 58.5k level. Could see it shave off 10-15k in no time. Still holding RIOT, MSTR puts.

12 thg 5, 2021

Ghi chú

thanks for the boost there elon. we have a beautiful rounded top now. 47k very soon; 42k shortly after. 30k possible.

17 thg 5, 2021

Ghi chú

Noting we basically hit this 42k support today. I could see a bounce from here to perhaps as high as 47k but the next genuine support under 42k is around 30k. This would suggest about a 50% retracement and so it's also a pretty reasonable assumption to think we could get there -- bu not also the logner term (blue line) uptrend could provide some support if we break this 42k level as well. My *feeling* is we have a 70-80% chance of breaking down below 42k in the next week or two.

18 thg 5, 2021

Ghi chú

we have bumped into this 42500 level now four times. breaking this level should open us up to about 39000. looks likely this will happen soon.