As we all know by now that we're still in the bearish trend since 65K. So taking a few steps back and looking at the daily chart, there might be a possibility for a rectangle continuation pattern forming.
These rectangle patterns tells you that the major trend may possibly continue it's way after completing the rectangle-like shape. Most commonly, within a bearish rectangle pattern, we'd see 3 tops and 2 bottoms. And after the 3rd bottom, we'll break below.
As of this moment, I'm still bullish on BTC up to the main resistance area at 40-42K. And this idea will be invalid, if BTC breaks and closes above that resistance. If that happens, we'll also be sure about the Wyckoff accumulation phase status and we'll move further above. You may see it in the attached ideas below.
Until then, I'd strongly suggest waiting until BTC price reaches the resistance zone. If we see a strong pullback from the resistance like more than 3-4K, than we can try this one out.
So if this pattern works, the minimum target will be 20K area as suggested commonly with this continuation pattern. See this cheat sheet below to understand how rectangles work. The size from top to bottom will be your target after breakout. And mostly it's referred to as the minimum target. So follow up and see, if this scenario will work out and maybe you can target even more below 20K.
And you will know that this scenario is in place when BTC breaks 30K with a really huge volume, larger than before. That will be your confirmation. If you don't see that happening when it comes to that price area, I'd recommend staying away from shorting or closing your short positions as it will probably be a fake breakout.
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