BTC → Bitcoin Near Resistance! Should We Short? Let's Answer.

26 thg 2

Bitcoin is in a critical price zone as this bull run has taken us from $15,500 to $52,800. Is this a situation where we short? Or do we prepare for a long?

How do we trade this? 🤔
Shorting may be an option for a lower timeframe such as the 15m or 1HR. I would not be shorting on the Daily or Weekly candles, but waiting for the price to pull back to enter a long.

As outlined in my Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis, I believe Bitcoin is due for a major pullback ranging from 30-50% toward the $25,000-$30,000 price area:

I would target a long entry in the $35,000 price area, set a stop loss either below the $15,500 low and target a 1:3 Risk/Reward, or a stop loss below the previous trading range at $25,000. Look for a double bottom around the Breakout Support area at $31,800 with a strong bull signal and confirmation bars. From there, reasonable take profit targets include 1:1 Risk/Reward at $42,300, just below the current price at $51,000, just below the previous all-time high at $65,000, and just below $100,000 which is a psychologically even number target.


💡 Trade Idea 💡

Long Entry: $35,575.00
🟥 Stop Loss: $22,900.00
✅ Take Profit #1: $42,300
✅ Take Profit #2: $65,000
✅ Take Profit #3: $98,000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:5


🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑

1. Three pushes up toward a Resistance Area of $52,800
2. Resistance area is derived from the 2021 Head and Shoulders pattern
3. Wait for the price to pullback between 30-50%, and look for a double-bottom reversal pattern near $35,000
4. Long at 1:5 risk reward and take profit at three key levels
5. RSI is overbought at 78.00 which supports the pullback.


💰 Trading Tip 💰
Trends typically have 3 pushes in either direction before a trend change begins. Along with other market indicators, creates a situation to look for counter-trend trades because the probability of profit is high enough.


⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!


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28 thg 2

Ghi chú

Bitcoins price action is red hot toward the upside! At this point, I would expect we near the previous all-time-high around $68,500. I still remain cautious at these levels. Three pushes up in a channel near a resistance zone with an overbought RSI and a 50% price gap to the Weekly 30EMA is NOT a place to be bullish. Statistically and psychologically, if one were to buy here, they would lose money. The risk is too high, and the profit potential in the context of the weekly candles is too low; bad risk/reward and weak probability.

This is a place to long scalp at best, look for a short entry on the 1HR or 4HR timeframe, or wait on the sidelines for the next long opportunity likely after a 2-legged pullback.