Bitcoin In DANGER: Back to $20,000?

21 thg 6

Preface: I don't think that going back to 20k is the most likely scenario at this point in time. However, it's valuable to discuss different potential outcomes in an every-changing market. If you disagree and only want to look at one potential outcome it's up to you.

In this analysis I want to take a look at one of my more popular indicators; Bitcoin's Logarithmic Price Bands. In case you want to know more about this indicator, please check out the link on the bottom of this post.

Back in March I made an analysis with a similar title where I discussed the fact that the yellow logarithmic price band has historically proven to be a very strong resistance.

For example, last cycle's mid-cycle pump (summer 2019) found resistance on exactly the same area.
Same can be said for 2013. Both reversals from the yellow bands resulted in a >70% dump (high to low). A 70% dump would mean that BTC will go back to (roughly) 20k.

It's too early to say whether this analysis is correct, but I can imagine a world where this is possible. Compared to previous cycles, we went up too much and too fast with all the ETF news. A deep correction might be needed to get to the elusive 100k.

Happy to hear your thoughts in the comments 🙏

21 thg 6

Ghi chú

Indicator used in this analysis:

21 thg 6

Ghi chú

My current most likely scenario: