BTC's accumulation in the face of bearish retail sentiment
Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to move sideways, but for how long? Yesterday's downward movement that led to this sideways action appears to be a breakdown of a larger bear flag, which as I mentioned a few days back would have a target of around $5000. This would follow the AAPL 2009 pattern as I discussed last night, creating a spring, and if price continued to follow it then it would mark the beginning of the bull run. Obviously price does not have to drop that low as pattern targets often do not full materialize, nor does price even have to drop at all as the current area has proven to be a strong accumulation zone. However, if price begins a rapid decent, that is what I will be looking for at this time. Daily RSI is sitting at 40, so there is room for price to drop in such a manner.
The 15 minute chart has been playing out as outlined last night and price has so far hit a high of $6349 which is the equilibrium of the box that sits at $6322 to $6370. Anyone watching last night knows that was my initial target at $6340/$6350. Remember, there was another possible path that included a spring around $6179, but I warned against traders thinking it was required. So, what now? We can see that price formed a symmetrical triangle, denoted in red. The target is based on the widest part of the triangle, which as you can see leads to $6400. That would put price right between the next two upper blue and red horizontal lines that I spoke of as the next targets. As I've been typing this up, price has now hit a high of $6390, which is the previous period's S1 pivot. At this time, continued movement up will have me watching the R1 pivot at $6456 and the horizontal red line above it at $6544. A move beyond that will see price targeting $6680-$6690. For those who tune into our 2x daily live streams, none of this is a surprise.
There is currently little real resistance near price. A check of TensorCharts.com shows us the strongest resistance sits at $6400, but if you've been watching this morning you will have noticed that it has just moved from $6300. It's a false sell wall meant to scare buyers. If you look at the Accumulation Distribution line on, both, the 15 minute and 1D charts, you will see that it continues to rise. We have generally looked at OBV throughout this year, but I have also spoken about this other indicator a time or two. It, like OBV, tells us that accumulation is occurring rather than distribution which should signal price increasing rather than decreasing, contrary to the most bearish among us calling for long, extended trips down to $4000 and below. This could change if this indicator begins showing distribution, but until then any thoughts of that kind of move are irrational.
Ultimately, we are watching the September 14th swing high of $6596 and the September 8th swing low of $6119 as the initial boundaries of this current sideways movement. Above the former or below the latter denote likely continued movement in their directions. If dropping below the swing low, then we will be watching the August 14th swing low of $5858 and June 24th swing low of $5755 to hold as support. As we can see, there is also a short ascending support line currently sitting at around $5835 that should help as well. Above price, the daily cloud looms, but notice that it things out immensely at the end of the first week and into the second week of October. This means less resistance on a possible push upward. BTCUSD shorts continue building as they near their ATH and longs appear to be attempting to build a base.
DXY continues to fight to stay up, but doesn't seem to have a lot of strength at the moment as the best it can do is move sideways while continuing to dip lower. Gold continues to build its ascending triangle which would create a reversal from the downward movement. While neither of these may directly influence Bitcoin, what they do is provide a gauge of the economy and when they act in the manner that they are we have historically seen Bitcoin's price rise.
The 15 minute chart has been playing out as outlined last night and price has so far hit a high of $6349 which is the equilibrium of the box that sits at $6322 to $6370. Anyone watching last night knows that was my initial target at $6340/$6350. Remember, there was another possible path that included a spring around $6179, but I warned against traders thinking it was required. So, what now? We can see that price formed a symmetrical triangle, denoted in red. The target is based on the widest part of the triangle, which as you can see leads to $6400. That would put price right between the next two upper blue and red horizontal lines that I spoke of as the next targets. As I've been typing this up, price has now hit a high of $6390, which is the previous period's S1 pivot. At this time, continued movement up will have me watching the R1 pivot at $6456 and the horizontal red line above it at $6544. A move beyond that will see price targeting $6680-$6690. For those who tune into our 2x daily live streams, none of this is a surprise.
There is currently little real resistance near price. A check of TensorCharts.com shows us the strongest resistance sits at $6400, but if you've been watching this morning you will have noticed that it has just moved from $6300. It's a false sell wall meant to scare buyers. If you look at the Accumulation Distribution line on, both, the 15 minute and 1D charts, you will see that it continues to rise. We have generally looked at OBV throughout this year, but I have also spoken about this other indicator a time or two. It, like OBV, tells us that accumulation is occurring rather than distribution which should signal price increasing rather than decreasing, contrary to the most bearish among us calling for long, extended trips down to $4000 and below. This could change if this indicator begins showing distribution, but until then any thoughts of that kind of move are irrational.
Ultimately, we are watching the September 14th swing high of $6596 and the September 8th swing low of $6119 as the initial boundaries of this current sideways movement. Above the former or below the latter denote likely continued movement in their directions. If dropping below the swing low, then we will be watching the August 14th swing low of $5858 and June 24th swing low of $5755 to hold as support. As we can see, there is also a short ascending support line currently sitting at around $5835 that should help as well. Above price, the daily cloud looms, but notice that it things out immensely at the end of the first week and into the second week of October. This means less resistance on a possible push upward. BTCUSD shorts continue building as they near their ATH and longs appear to be attempting to build a base.
DXY continues to fight to stay up, but doesn't seem to have a lot of strength at the moment as the best it can do is move sideways while continuing to dip lower. Gold continues to build its ascending triangle which would create a reversal from the downward movement. While neither of these may directly influence Bitcoin, what they do is provide a gauge of the economy and when they act in the manner that they are we have historically seen Bitcoin's price rise.
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