Bitcoin Corrective Wave Down To Logarithmic Retest

27 thg 4, 2018

First chart is the usual linear hourly Bitcoin on Bitfinex and it’s been a relatively peaceful day. But, let’s start looking at how price had a nice pump around 4pm EST yesterday and continued to rally to $9,318. Next we got a small pullback to $9,135 before another small rally up to the highs on the day of $9,381.

Price has since rolled over on some divergence on the MACD and RSI to where it is falling over the past few hours and people may be cashing out for the week.

I have drawn a black horizontal line on the RSI indicator to show where it doubled topped compared to the increasing black line from 9pm EST to 6am EST on the price chart. The indicator does a good job showing the sell point for any trading the move.

We have also been monitoring the Fibonacci retracement on this bearish move and you can see how price moved past the .5 level at $9,208 and all the way back past the .618 fib level at $9,339 today. There is still a lot of bullish sentiment in this market, despite technically looking that price need to move quite a bit lower.

It is healthy to see price coming all the way back down now and tapping that 200 hour moving average as well as the purple horizontal support at $8,912. Over the next few hours here, I think that price will break back below that level and retest the yellow downward sloping support line and then over the weekend head sideways to lower.

Inevitably I think these levels need to break because then there would be a nice corrective wave to support the bullish impulse wave starting around April 6th.



On the daily linear Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, things certainly look ripe for a short. As discussed yesterday this turquoise channel is going to be broken on a close $9,175 today.

I could definitely see a big red candle tomorrow or sunday to fill that void from the big green candle on April 20th. So maybe that could land around $8,527 and then some follow-through down to the blue box at $8,294 into early next week.

I feel like the bullish sentiment overall is picking up and people are preparing to deploy their capital should this dip occur. That .786 blue line sliding up through the chart on the long term pitchfork, could be a great level to layer some buys if going long.

I think that .5 fib line of around $8,143 on the log chart could be the magic level and tapping that maroon line and launching off of it is the key.

I have even drawn some bearish divergence on this chart between the price and RSI. The lows on the RSI are steadily heading lower while price is still heading up. This usually marks a turn in price for the market.



Overall zooming out a bit on this chart, I have marked some bullish divergence on the overall Bitcoin price pattern from the past few months. These are also marked with the black lines.

It has a downward sloping black trend line on the price chart from Feb 5th to Apr 6th, but a very slightly upward sloping black line on the RSI chart over the same period. This definitely a good indicator that the bottom is in, however price need to correct for now before beginning the next bullish move upwards.