Rally gets weak below major resistance.

5 thg 7, 2018

Bearish signals:
Divergence on the 1 hour Macd and RSI, 4 hr RSI shows divergence better. 4 hr rsi crossed signal line.
Daily: RSI divergence.
Volume drops off at rallies, this is a weak sign of strength.
Bulls must gather more momentum, I'm not sure where this'll come from given major resistance up ahead.
Long positions are top heavy, there's a lot of room for taking profits vs short positions.

We see an ascending wedge. Last two proved bearish.
Possible H&S forming. Doesn't matter if legitimate, it is obvious enough for people to see it's possibility.

Bullish signals:
price broke major channel resistance. Zoom out on the chart to see.
on the daily volume is slightly increasing.

Conclusion:
price still can stretch another 200 - 400 points higher on a larger time frame
rally is too weak to push 200 - 400 points higher before dropping on the hourly time frame.
Breakout of channel was weak and caused minor divergence, likely to retest one of the outer channel lines as support before climbing higher, if climbing higher.

Assumptions:
This "spring" regarding Wyckoff accumulation TR happened on such a small time frame I don't think Market Makers gathered enough information to push forth another bull run. Market reputation still hurting too much and there is still plenty of logarithmic room for prices to drop further. This is a very impatient market, for mass adoption a 1 week long spring is not long enough. 4500 - 5000: these are the prices Market Makers could really take advantage of during panic sell, accumulating over a longer period, holding prices up long enough to establish faith in the market again that it has stabilised at a "bottom".

Positions to take: 1) short on low leverage. 2) stack with higher leverage or smaller stacks pushing liquidation up to 7k or 7,2 to be quite safe.

5 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

bearish signals:
200ema on 4hr has showed up as resistance. though on the 1 hour price has broken above it.
bullish signals:
CMF shows there's still a lot of buying pressure keeping the price up putting pressure on short positions in this range to pull out causing a small spike into heavier bear territory. Possibility to see 6800 again before going down.
If price is able to stabilise on the blue rectangle with current orders taking profits or closing, another bull rally will be likely.

Conclusion: I would not look to open a short position if I saw a 4hr candle open and close above the 4h 200ema. But with major resistance at 7k, where I believe there's a lot of supply waiting to get out of btc, I would not FOMO into a long here either. Only a break above the low 7k zone would confirm for a bull rally to 8k, 9k.
A drop at this point down to 6300 - 6180 support zone will build pressure in the channel, as the support line forms a triangle with the channel resistance. This support is weak and without a strong market incentive will collapse against the more dominant downward trend.

5 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

sorry, here's the chart including the blue rectangle and triangle.

7 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

update:
now the possibility to see 6800 before going down is not considered for me.
- bulls have shown strength here but are backing off. No one taking major losses.
- Shorts and Longs are not overstretched so I think this wedge will play out and we'll see at least one reactionary bounce off old channel resistance becoming support.
- Volume dropped off at rally, we see a big reduction on the 4hr volume bar.
- RSI divergence reinforces this bearish wedge should print true.


I've been taking small profits and re-entering trades at and above 6600.
Take profits is at a conservative 6,4.
Small possibility we'll see a retest of 5,9 in a bit. Though I don't have any positions hoping to catch it.

7 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Buying pressure by volume is dropping off below where Sell Orders wait in the 6600 to 6800 zone. Taking a quick look at the btc combined order book USD we actually see an equal value of buy and sell orders up to 100 points either way of 6600. Not to put too much weight on this because the order books fluctuate quite a bit, but it does support the insight here on trading view I am seeing of a pretty split but not polemic consensus that the price will move either way in the immediate future. The general view I believe to witness is a tentative bullish market, as we'll see.

Volume dying off at 6600 without much sell pressure indicates people are bullish but not willing to commit without a safer entry price, which may ignite at 6,4 or lower if bears try to bring BTC down prematurely. If Bulls take too long to gather momentum at 6,4 I don't think whales will hold the bottom here and we'll be seeing lower lows before September IMO.

Conclusion: Wedge will still play out. 6,3 to 6,2 is a safe entry for higher leverage. Target 7k. Price won't break 6,8 before going to 6,4.

11 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Update:
Really didn't seem price would break up, but it did. Got coat-hangered at 6,8 twice before taking a steep correction. To me this meant price did want to go down, and because it faked upwards suffered a sharper correction. It gives me doubt the right shoulder is forming; makes me think it already hand formed a smaller weak right shoulder and the projected target failed. It's not looking good for btc.

The scenario I mentioned where the price dropping back into the channel will form a descending triangle might be playing out now. This is a much smaller wedge than I had visualised and doesn't have a proper base structure. The projected target is disproportionate; it is not a proper triangle but the principles still apply if the old channel line acting as resistance and the support being weaker than the overall downtrend. BTC loves fake breakouts.

I am not entirely confident of this analysis, but thought I'd update. Let's see how it plays out. A conservative trader would not enter a position here.

11 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Here is what I mean re. the ill formed right shoulder already happening. Trolls on the exchange aren't that excited about longing here either.
What worries me is we haven't actually established the supply zone yet, and we failed at 6,7/6,8 seven times as a few have pointed out. Looking at past volume on the daily, go back and see where volume has defined the bottoms in the past at turning points. I have not seen a spike in volume relative here yet.

11 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

haven't established the DEMAND zone**

12 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

38.2% retrace is holding. not a bounce though imo. regarding the rest of my TA, it has become invalid. Thank you for reading.