BTC still bullish, longer cycles = more correction
To put it simply, I believe we going to be in a bull run well into 2022, late q1 early q2 are likley areas to target for peaks based on previous cycles, but quite frankly it could be even longer. I've elaborated as to why in previous ideas I've posted, and honestly, little has changed about my plan and how things are going. Part of longer cycles is more corrections/shakeout phases. I even suggested the idea of a second or third shakeout back in the summer, and we seem to be seeing it. Could it be the cycle end? Yes, but there's no real confirmation yet, and I'll try to show why
Price action right now is simply awful, and volume is pretty low. We're losing MA's and EMA's left and right. It's easy to get discouraged. Unless you have experience with BTC specifically and a good idea of what to look for on longer timeframes, You'd easily consider panic selling or panic buying at these levels, depending on what your account looks like. If you haven't yet, I would consider waiting a bit more for either option.
For a long time now people have used the Log curve and log rainbow (log curve with fibs) to chart out peaks, but it can also be reliably used to forecast shakeout lows and the ultimate bottom as well. I've covered this in previous ideas, and it took something like covid to pull price below the bottom line, and it rebounded quickly from that event. Essentially, as long as we don't go decisively below the blue line on the log rainbow (around 38500 right now), the bull run is still on. I've shown how it's acted as the lowest we would go in previous cycles before, and it was a pretty reliable bottom again in the summer shakeout.
Also note the Cypher B indicator, On the 1d it's starting to throw up some similar signs as the last time we started to go back up.
RSI, Fisher and MFI are pretty low but could stand to go a bit lower however, so I don't think it's time to buy yet. Give it 2 or 3 days and see what's going on then. There will probably be a couple more scam pumps before the real one.
I think it's pretty likley that we get close to the blue line, at least as low as the big scary wick. I'd wait till at least 43k to start buying in, could go as low as 37500, but much lower and things will probably collapse. The line that normally marks the absolute cycle bottom is around 26k. If it dips below that, we're in for a historic bear season. I doubt we see have that play out, it's always good to keep in mind where the disaster zone is though. I expect a bounce between 39k and 43k, but I can't call it any more specifically than that.
I will say, if you bought in now, it's probably not the worst thing if you're in spot. I wouldn't take a long just yet, but that time should be soon, within the next week. 47000 seems to be holding for now but we're in a bearish formation on the 1hr and I don't see real signs of change yet. If it's another bear flag like I think it is we'll be at 45 and lower before too much longer. This market will reward the patient.
Price action right now is simply awful, and volume is pretty low. We're losing MA's and EMA's left and right. It's easy to get discouraged. Unless you have experience with BTC specifically and a good idea of what to look for on longer timeframes, You'd easily consider panic selling or panic buying at these levels, depending on what your account looks like. If you haven't yet, I would consider waiting a bit more for either option.
For a long time now people have used the Log curve and log rainbow (log curve with fibs) to chart out peaks, but it can also be reliably used to forecast shakeout lows and the ultimate bottom as well. I've covered this in previous ideas, and it took something like covid to pull price below the bottom line, and it rebounded quickly from that event. Essentially, as long as we don't go decisively below the blue line on the log rainbow (around 38500 right now), the bull run is still on. I've shown how it's acted as the lowest we would go in previous cycles before, and it was a pretty reliable bottom again in the summer shakeout.
Also note the Cypher B indicator, On the 1d it's starting to throw up some similar signs as the last time we started to go back up.
RSI, Fisher and MFI are pretty low but could stand to go a bit lower however, so I don't think it's time to buy yet. Give it 2 or 3 days and see what's going on then. There will probably be a couple more scam pumps before the real one.
I think it's pretty likley that we get close to the blue line, at least as low as the big scary wick. I'd wait till at least 43k to start buying in, could go as low as 37500, but much lower and things will probably collapse. The line that normally marks the absolute cycle bottom is around 26k. If it dips below that, we're in for a historic bear season. I doubt we see have that play out, it's always good to keep in mind where the disaster zone is though. I expect a bounce between 39k and 43k, but I can't call it any more specifically than that.
I will say, if you bought in now, it's probably not the worst thing if you're in spot. I wouldn't take a long just yet, but that time should be soon, within the next week. 47000 seems to be holding for now but we're in a bearish formation on the 1hr and I don't see real signs of change yet. If it's another bear flag like I think it is we'll be at 45 and lower before too much longer. This market will reward the patient.
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