BTC/USD - Price stuck in pennant, can we break out?

30 thg 5, 2021

Bitcoin is still consolidating in this tight range between 40k and 33k and has formed a clear pennant.

Question is, will we break out or continue to fall? This pennant could be a continuation patter and we may have more pain ahead of us, however, I still find it unlikely for us to break our key support at 30k. But a break below this pennant will put us in trouble again.

Until then, there is a good probability BTC price action will take us above this pennant and pump at least towards 48K-50k which will be our most significant resistance in this bearish price action that started in May.

There are some good signs on daily timeframe, with RSI and MACD both giving some clear signals we want to curve here and go higher soon. However, we need to be patient as volume has been rather weak lately and I don't expect it to return in good strength until we break this pennant.

RSI is making higher lows, this is bullish and MACD is about to do a bullish cross. We still need a few days for this or a nice green candle. However, on weekly, we're still very bearish, hence whatever pump we will get once we hit the resistance at 48K profit taking will happen so, be on guard for that.

Nevertheless, after such a drop in May, I suspect BTC will do a nice rally in early June towards our 48K resistance, then we need to re-assess. A sustained break above that area may turn us back into bull mode. For now, the outlook is still bearish medium term until we clear that massive resistance.

See my last BTC idea for the macro picture, linked below.

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