BTCUSD: Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?

12 thg 12, 2019

Sometimes the simplest extrapolations are best. No indicators on this chart, this is a pure extrapolation of the 2014-2015 correction and accumulation phase, that has notable similarities with the current fractal in play. Could $6,500 be the new swing low? Absolutely. This would imply an accumulation zone between $6.5-8.3K for approximately 40 weeks, with the current correction lasting a reasonable 1 Year.

This current extrapolation points to a breakout in price above 14K in July 2020, followed by a new all time high 6 months later in February 2021.

See related analysis: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate

As well as bearish analysis: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?

Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns

Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537

12 thg 12, 2019

Ghi chú

Note the extrapolation is not proportionate to the 2014-2015 correction, it is considerably shrunk in price & date in order to fit the current potential fractal.

18 thg 12, 2019

Ghi chú

I'm currently guesstimating $6,500 has having a 20% probability of being the low.
Reference: twitter.com/DragonOnRedirec/status/1206893152336011265

19 thg 12, 2019

Ghi chú

As featured on Sawcruhteez Streamz :-)
youtube.com/watch?v=lYs2MQshjiE&feature=youtu.com&t=2060

25 thg 12, 2019

Ghi chú

Reference from adaseb: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5209110.msg53432209

"You don't have this shown on your chart but in Aug 2015 on Bitfinex, there was some event (forgot what ) that lead to bitcoin having a double bottom actually at the $165 area. I know this because I actually had a short from $300 that I covered exactly when that low broke and pretty much covered at the lowest low price in the last 5 years.

Bitfinex charts should be given preference since back then its where most of the trading was done. Had the most volume and liquidity. There was no Bitmex back then. So you should update your chart using the Bitfinex data."

Reference from me: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5209110.msg53435039

"I hear you, $162 was that low in August 2015 on Bitfinex. You're right it wouldn't been a lot better using Bitfinex data for this chart, that $162 wick would no doubt be testing the support of the accumulation zone (around $6,500) for the second and last time, effectively confirming the range as accumulation. Thanks for pointing that out.

I usually avoid Bitfinex charts due to the tether scam price fluctuations that occurs on it. Really I want the Bitfinex extrapolation on a Coinbase/BLX chart, since Bitfinex doesn't have the volume or stability it used to compared to other exchanges, but otherwise any older extrapolations should be based on this exchange volume as you put it.

Without re-publishing (that I don't think is necessarily), I will make a comment on the chart with your reference point, and bare this in mind for future extrapolations:"

28 thg 12, 2019

Ghi chú

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