New cycle begins

9 thg 11, 2023

Bitcoin is turning bullish on a weekly basis for the first time after a deep red bear market phase. This is a huge signal and usually indicates the beginning of the next cycle.

I have marked the deep red phase in purple and the first weekly signal with an arrow on the chart.

This is the first phase of the cycle, so I would not expect any crazy end-of-cycle moves. But for now, dips should be a gift from heaven. In the past we have seen 30-50% corrections within the cycle. So we need to be prepared for that as BTC approaches and breaks its ath.

We will have to figure out the target during the next year but I think it will be 6 digits.

16 thg 11, 2023

Ghi chú

1 like on the idea... people have little conviction?

all the forced selling already happened during the bear which pushed the price way below the weekly ma200, coins moved to strong hands with conviction, we bulls bought it all up and are not going to give up on btc right before the etf and halving.

It will not be an easy ride to the new ath, it will take some time and we cannot take all the leverage traders with us to the moon.

1 thg 12, 2023

Ghi chú

the rsi gives me 2015 flashbacks

9 thg 2

Ghi chú

Yesterday we saw 9k net inflows into the ETF versus 0.9k new BTC mined. Boomers are buying, there has been supply from gbtc, but we see as soon as there are small outflows from gbtc, btc has to be bought on the open market.
With Genesis there is still one big seller left in GBTC with about 30k btc: blockworks.co/news/genesis-offloading-gbtc
So there is still some supply, but once all that is eaten up, boomers will have to find sellers, and there will not be many left. Meanwhile, the halving will halve the daily freshly mined btc to 0.45k.

14 thg 2

Ghi chú

btc is really strong. the price went back down to the midline of the channel and is now back at the upper line, i think if btc breaks out it will move to ath. if not it might become boring for a while again.
The weekly rsi, is still looking similar to 2015/2016 early bull market phase, neckline got tested and acted as support.

20 thg 2

Ghi chú

I think if btc breaks out of the channel, crypto is leaving the early bull market phase and entering the bubble phase.

28 thg 2

Ghi chú

bitcoin already broke out of the channel and with it the bubble started.
I think it will not fall back in the channel anymore, so all corrections should be above the upper channel high.
the crypto bubble usually takes 6-18 months, very hard to guess as this cycle is a bit different from others, with the etf the bull already started way before the halving.
what we saw in previous bubbles is that altcoins usually have their best time once bitcoin is close or above its ath, so we will likely see some more crazy alts pumps in the near future.
good luck

5 thg 3

Ghi chú

breaking ath :)

18 thg 10

Ghi chú

The post halving consolidation phase is now coming to an end, and while we have been able to enjoy the summer and chill, it is time to start paying attention again as BTC starts to move higher for its next leg up.

5 thg 12

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It's 6 digits