Once BTC breaks down below 16292-16562 it will get hit to the 12105-13155 level by Jan 2023 (see dates in chart)
If that doesn't hold it can get hit to around 9929 to complete the markdown from the distribution back at the end of 2021. There has been a minor distribution that formed over past few months and the activate markdown level was 18280.. it got hit to test the 1.618 around 15886.29, then bu/restest of that 18280 where it got rejected from last week. The explosive drop back down from that level was very bearish.
Back in 2018-2020 it had major re-accumulation which marked up above 13274 and 16292. There is a chance the 16292 acts as support here, however, it is more likely it falls to the confluence of 13274 and the upper target level from the recent distribution of 13155.
Mid-term it will likely begin a larger accumulation structure down here and then see a sign of strength w/ run to 29462-34507 in 2023. How it trades there will be important: if it shows resistance and begins to distribute then longer term downside target is 1000-2800 but I don't see that happening. Near term though more downside risk
If that doesn't hold it can get hit to around 9929 to complete the markdown from the distribution back at the end of 2021. There has been a minor distribution that formed over past few months and the activate markdown level was 18280.. it got hit to test the 1.618 around 15886.29, then bu/restest of that 18280 where it got rejected from last week. The explosive drop back down from that level was very bearish.
Back in 2018-2020 it had major re-accumulation which marked up above 13274 and 16292. There is a chance the 16292 acts as support here, however, it is more likely it falls to the confluence of 13274 and the upper target level from the recent distribution of 13155.
Mid-term it will likely begin a larger accumulation structure down here and then see a sign of strength w/ run to 29462-34507 in 2023. How it trades there will be important: if it shows resistance and begins to distribute then longer term downside target is 1000-2800 but I don't see that happening. Near term though more downside risk
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See my updated idea - near term bullish before we get the drop
