ATH, may 24

10 thg 4, 2023

BTC's next ATH is in May 2024.

Below is a table with the number of days for each wave and the percentage change for each wave in the last collum.
Using rounded numbers for percentages (50, 160, 80 and 65) I tried to spot any pattern to forecast the length (in days) of the next wave 5.

E.g: First Wave 3 took 731 days and the second 610 days. 610 days represent ~84% of 731, meaning that the second wave 3 took 16% less time to complete.

Now, considering that we are going to the next wave 5 of the second supercycle, all we need to find is a pattern to try to predict the length of this next wave.
One pattern observed in the numbers 50, 160, 80 and 65 that represents the percentage changes of each wave is:
- to alternate between multiplying by 2 and dividing by 2. Using this pattern, we can see that:

50 x 2 = 100
160 ÷ 2 = 80
80 x 2 = 160
65 ÷ 2 = 32.5

Therefore, the next number in the sequence would be 32.5 x 2 = 65.

853 x 65% = 554 days

Nov 2022 ---- 554 days ---- may 2024

So considering that 65 is the missing percentage for the next wave 5, we can conclude that the next wave 5 will be 65% of the number of days of the first wave 5. In this case, the next wave 5 that will bring a blow-off top is due to finish around May 2024 from the bottom on Nov 22.


Days
First Second Difference %difference
Wave 1 300 151 -149 50.33%
Wave 2 153 244 91 159.48%
Wave 3 731 610 -121 83.45%
Wave 4 608 395 -213 64.97%
Wave 5 853 554 -299 65%