Odds favoring the bears or the bulls in the weeks ahead?
Trading Style: Swing trading 4hr/Daily/Weekly
Observations:
Weekly:
Doji candle still valid till we close current weekly candle closes above $4056.33
Volume has considerable dropped in the past weeks.
Bulls buying the weekly dip, but move lacking volume.
Daily:
Daily higher low at $3858 anything above keep bulls in control.
RSI approaching oversold conditions.
Exponentials acting still acting as support.
Analysis:
I still believe that the odds favor the bears in the weeks to come. We are currently trading above last weeks doji candle formation, but this weekly candle has not close yet so in my opinion this doji is still valid, needless to say that the market doesn't necessarily needs to retrace right away. BTC can enter a period of sideway trading before its next leg up, or simply retrace to make a new higher low allowing for prices to become more attractive for the bulls. The key here in my opinion is understanding where BTC might retrace to, where can it possibly make this new higher low, or is it going to consolidate within the green box?
Possible Plays:
In my opinion BTC consolidating within the green box is the least likely scenario, my reasoning behind that comes from the lack of volume and the fact that we been rejected the last previous 8 attempts. I will be more confident in this happening if BTC was at current levels, with increasing bull volume. Note: If BTC manages to close above the $4050 level, back test the range, holds it as support, consolidate between 4k and 4.5k my sentiment will completely change, given that at that point the bulls would have proven to me that they are able to hold as support a level that has proven to be extremely difficult to break.
- If the odds start favoring this scenario I'll be zooming into other timeframes to determine a good entry point. Possible profit taking 5K to mid 5k keeping an eye on the SMA50 to act as possible resistance.
I see the odds favoring a pull back given that we have NOT establish a weekly higher low since $3337, also the volume dropping off is a huge red flag for me showing that the bulls are exhausted or close to exhaustion, which is to be expected considering that we been grinding our way up for the last 8 weeks with no breaks in between. This in combinations with the doji formation from last week simply have me favoring the bears or a period of sideways trading in the best of scenarios.
- If BTC was to lose the Higher highs, higher lows on the daily chart I will be looking to 3700 area to act as support for a possible swing trade given that this area has previously acted as both support and resistance, if this fails I will be either looking for entries close to the SMA200 or the ascending support line of the tentative ascending triangle formation. If this levels break this analysis will be invalidated given that I'll have to re-access the market environment.
Sentiment:
Long term bullish, Short term Bearish.
NOTE:
I apologize for saying in my previous analysis that we had lost the higher high/ higher low pattern on the daily chart, to be honest as I was reviewing BTC today I saw no indication of the daily trend being lost so I frankly was either looking at a different timeframe or wasn't paying attention to what I was writing given that the uptrend in the daily is clearly intact. I believe that the best way to learn is to hold ourself accountable for our mistakes and learn from them.
Disclosure:
I am in no way shape of form qualified to give any financial advise, this are simply my ideas and my personal observations. I believe that the best way to learn is to put your thoughts out there and hopefully learn from those that have been doing this for a long time, having said that please feel free and call me out in any mistakes, or things that I am overlooking.. Constructive criticism is very much welcomed, no better way than learning as a community.
Observations:
Weekly:
Doji candle still valid till we close current weekly candle closes above $4056.33
Volume has considerable dropped in the past weeks.
Bulls buying the weekly dip, but move lacking volume.
Daily:
Daily higher low at $3858 anything above keep bulls in control.
RSI approaching oversold conditions.
Exponentials acting still acting as support.
Analysis:
I still believe that the odds favor the bears in the weeks to come. We are currently trading above last weeks doji candle formation, but this weekly candle has not close yet so in my opinion this doji is still valid, needless to say that the market doesn't necessarily needs to retrace right away. BTC can enter a period of sideway trading before its next leg up, or simply retrace to make a new higher low allowing for prices to become more attractive for the bulls. The key here in my opinion is understanding where BTC might retrace to, where can it possibly make this new higher low, or is it going to consolidate within the green box?
Possible Plays:
In my opinion BTC consolidating within the green box is the least likely scenario, my reasoning behind that comes from the lack of volume and the fact that we been rejected the last previous 8 attempts. I will be more confident in this happening if BTC was at current levels, with increasing bull volume. Note: If BTC manages to close above the $4050 level, back test the range, holds it as support, consolidate between 4k and 4.5k my sentiment will completely change, given that at that point the bulls would have proven to me that they are able to hold as support a level that has proven to be extremely difficult to break.
- If the odds start favoring this scenario I'll be zooming into other timeframes to determine a good entry point. Possible profit taking 5K to mid 5k keeping an eye on the SMA50 to act as possible resistance.
I see the odds favoring a pull back given that we have NOT establish a weekly higher low since $3337, also the volume dropping off is a huge red flag for me showing that the bulls are exhausted or close to exhaustion, which is to be expected considering that we been grinding our way up for the last 8 weeks with no breaks in between. This in combinations with the doji formation from last week simply have me favoring the bears or a period of sideways trading in the best of scenarios.
- If BTC was to lose the Higher highs, higher lows on the daily chart I will be looking to 3700 area to act as support for a possible swing trade given that this area has previously acted as both support and resistance, if this fails I will be either looking for entries close to the SMA200 or the ascending support line of the tentative ascending triangle formation. If this levels break this analysis will be invalidated given that I'll have to re-access the market environment.
Sentiment:
Long term bullish, Short term Bearish.
NOTE:
I apologize for saying in my previous analysis that we had lost the higher high/ higher low pattern on the daily chart, to be honest as I was reviewing BTC today I saw no indication of the daily trend being lost so I frankly was either looking at a different timeframe or wasn't paying attention to what I was writing given that the uptrend in the daily is clearly intact. I believe that the best way to learn is to hold ourself accountable for our mistakes and learn from them.
Disclosure:
I am in no way shape of form qualified to give any financial advise, this are simply my ideas and my personal observations. I believe that the best way to learn is to put your thoughts out there and hopefully learn from those that have been doing this for a long time, having said that please feel free and call me out in any mistakes, or things that I am overlooking.. Constructive criticism is very much welcomed, no better way than learning as a community.
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