BITCOIN: BUY RIGHT NOW!

3 thg 9

Greetings, Traders, 😉

In this post, I’d like to share my analysis and outlook on Bitcoin's potential price movement.

Currently, my outlook leans towards an upward trend.

Before diving into the details, I recommend reviewing my previous post that covers Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory to provide better context for the following analysis:

⬇️ Previous Analysis

Have you gone through it?
Excellent, let’s proceed with the rationale behind my current bullish outlook.

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✔️ BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / First Rationale

I have analyzed the price movement of Bitcoin starting from July 4, 2024. Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a descending channel.

Within this channel, the price has strongly respected the "Half Line," which enhances the credibility of the channel.

Interestingly, I have divided the channel into four sections, labeling them as "Quarter Lines."

Historical price action indicates significant resistance at these Quarter Lines, making it likely that we could see meaningful movements at these levels once again.

Moreover, it’s worth noting that a descending channel often breaks to the upside, while an ascending channel typically breaks to the downside.

To put it simply:

Descending Channel → Likely to break upward
Ascending Channel → Likely to break downward

Since the current chart forms a descending channel, it suggests a higher probability of an upward breakout.


✔️ BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Second Rationale

Key elements to observe in this chart include:

• 200 SMA (Simple Moving Average)
  
• Stop Hunt
  
• Ascending Channel
  

Based on these elements, the anticipated movement can be viewed as follows:


The Stop Hunt might induce a brief sell-off, followed by a bullish reversal—a strategy commonly employed by large market participants.

Given that the Half Line of the channel coincides with the Stop Hunt zone, this area becomes particularly significant.


✔️ BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 1H / Third Rationale

Focus on the "Trap" that has appeared near the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

A "Trap" is a movement designed by market makers to shake out less experienced traders.

The interpretation here is straightforward:

• The price briefly breaks below the ascending channel, triggering stop-loss orders from retail traders.
  
• These retail traders are forced to exit their positions.
  
• After the Trap, the price often moves to the opposite side of the channel. The current chart suggests a high likelihood of such a movement.
  

✔️ BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 4H / Fourth Rationale

This rationale is based on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator and focuses on the concept of "Hidden Bullish Divergence."

The conditions for this are as follows:

Price: Left < Right
RSI: Left > Right

Given that these conditions are met, it’s reasonable to expect upward momentum.

Additionally, a "Regular Bullish Divergence" is also observed:


The conditions for this are:

Price: Left > Right
RSI: Left < Right

Again, these conditions suggest the potential for a bullish reversal.

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[Summary]
Let’s summarize the key points of today’s analysis:

⬇️ First Rationale: Descending Channel

If the price maintains support at the Quarter Line, a bullish move can be expected.

⬇️ Second Rationale: 200 SMA, Stop Hunt, and Ascending Channel

Based on the convergence of these three factors, a bullish scenario seems likely.

⬇️ Third Rationale: Trap

The "Trap" is designed to deceive retail traders, and its occurrence often signals a move to the opposite side of the channel.

⬇️ Fourth Rationale: Bullish Divergences

Both Hidden and Regular Bullish Divergences have been identified, further supporting the case for an upward movement.

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[Conclusion]
In conclusion, I am maintaining my bullish outlook on Bitcoin.

I plan to uphold this perspective unless the aforementioned factors are invalidated.

Any updates will be communicated through an updated post.

Thank you for reading, and if you found this analysis helpful, please consider giving it a boost and following me for future updates.

✔️ This is not a buy or sell recommendation.
✔️ It is a personal perspective and should be used for reference only.
✔️ All decisions and responsibilities lie with you.