My last analysis was close about calling the upward break limit. We didn't get much higher than $7700 as I thought, while others were predicting and hoping to hit $8000 before we came back down. This remained a no trade for me well before my previous chart, but we do have a possibility of getting a more legit bounce this time with the TD sequential.
On the top chart we have the 4 hr paired with an RSI. The sequential is at an 8, so if we get enough downside to make a 9 reversal and also bring the RSI into oversold territory below the 30 dotted line, it may be a case for a sharper bounce that can traded in a short period of time. Another plus is the possibility to bounce off of the white support line while the other two conditions are met around $7060 or so. However, volume should also be watched closely. If it looks weak like it was for the last bounce that's a big negative. Note that if we start trading a green 1 after the 8 instead of a 9, that indicates weak upside as well. 8's can reverse, but they aren't top quality. Also the Chaikin Money Flow shows selling pressure on the 12 hr, 1 day and just starting to on the 4 hr, but I didn't pack it into this idea to avoid clutter.
On the second chart we have the 3 day, which has been excellent for indicating 9 reversals to a tea. The same conditions apply as above with the white support line. On this chart we can also see how the volume declined during that little bounce over $7700, so my sentiment is the same. Volume can not be ignored even if the other conditions appear favorable.
If we do bounce with the better conditions I have mentioned, my upside target would be $7800-8000 before coming down. In the mid term and beyond I am still bearish overall, expecting to break below 6k and eventually reach my downside target around $5025. There can be bounces in between, so as before, take my analysis with a grain of piss!
On the top chart we have the 4 hr paired with an RSI. The sequential is at an 8, so if we get enough downside to make a 9 reversal and also bring the RSI into oversold territory below the 30 dotted line, it may be a case for a sharper bounce that can traded in a short period of time. Another plus is the possibility to bounce off of the white support line while the other two conditions are met around $7060 or so. However, volume should also be watched closely. If it looks weak like it was for the last bounce that's a big negative. Note that if we start trading a green 1 after the 8 instead of a 9, that indicates weak upside as well. 8's can reverse, but they aren't top quality. Also the Chaikin Money Flow shows selling pressure on the 12 hr, 1 day and just starting to on the 4 hr, but I didn't pack it into this idea to avoid clutter.
On the second chart we have the 3 day, which has been excellent for indicating 9 reversals to a tea. The same conditions apply as above with the white support line. On this chart we can also see how the volume declined during that little bounce over $7700, so my sentiment is the same. Volume can not be ignored even if the other conditions appear favorable.
If we do bounce with the better conditions I have mentioned, my upside target would be $7800-8000 before coming down. In the mid term and beyond I am still bearish overall, expecting to break below 6k and eventually reach my downside target around $5025. There can be bounces in between, so as before, take my analysis with a grain of piss!
