BTC and Market update
Good morning,
So the bearish scenario has played out off the back off a wider risk off event across all markets due to the US fed turning hawkish, I won’t pretend to fully understand the impacts of rate hikes and the like on markets as it’s all new to me and I’m still learning but from what I have gathered the reaction to what will likely be only a tiny rate increase that will be historically low still, even if there end up being multiple this year seems extreme.
This suggests to me that we should see a decent rally after the Fomc meeting later in the week unless the news that comes from that is negative in which case we could see a much larger sell off but I think this is unlikely.
So looking at the charts we find ourselves back at the same Daily Order Block that price found initial support at after the May dump last year, could we see a similar accumulation setup here, where we eventually swing the prior low at 28k before we see any significant upside again?
It would seem the most likely or to at least tag the bottom of the large range at 30k, this would give a higher low but given that we find ourselves in this range I don’t think it matters that much as what is now very clear is that we are in a sideways market and have been for a year now. A move lower below 28k with reclaim with big volume could confirm a Wyckoff spring that could set this up as a huge re-accumulation range.
Another possibility is that the news from this meeting or the one in March is bullish for investors to risk back on, in which case we could see a god candle to the upside. Most would argue that we need to see a re-accumulation before more upside but what I take from the behaviour of large whale accounts is that they have been accumulating since last June/July. That added with the massive amount of short liquidity could see a capitulation to the upside whilst most are calling for a capitulation to the downside.
Further from that point is I have seen many calling for a large capitulation wick with volume like we saw in May to mark the bottom but my reasoning for why I don’t think we see that is the lack of volume overall and the fact that there isn’t as much retail interest compared to May 2021, this whole downside move hasn’t seen any where near as many liquidations even though we have fallen just as far.
I wouldn’t rule 20k out if markets continue to sell off, especially if we loose 28k but I don’t see that happening based on what I see at the moment.
Indicators
RSI – Oversold on 3D, through to 4HR.
There is hidden bullish divergence right up to the monthly chart between the May low and now.
Still yet to see any Bullish divergence lock in on any significant timeframe at current price levels.
MACD –
4HR oversold and flipping green with MACD crossing the signal line, which suggests to me maybe a little relief or more sideways short term.
All higher time frames are red.
Monthly has flipped red and crossing which definitely makes me cautious as this has signalled longer term downtrends in BTC’s history.
Bollinger bands –
We’re outside the bottom of the bands right up to the weekly suggesting we may be at a temporary support area which there is plenty of confluence to think this is so.
The Monthly is at the centre and holding above, I would like to see that hold. In July 2018 the MACD monthly crossed bearish, and price was at the centre of the Bollinger, once the centre was lost in Oct BTC capitulated another 50%.
Ichimoku –
Looks terrible, I’d recommend not looking at it!
I don’t have a great understanding of it as I only use it for added confluence sometimes but since we have been trending sideways for a year, to me this makes the HTF harder to read because from what I understand Ichimoku is better in trending markets but I’m not sure about that, maybe an Ichimoku trader could clarify?
Alts
Not expecting an alt season anytime soon but a few of the Alts I follow that have shown relative strength are
ATOM FFTM 
LUNA RFOX 
VRA
Traditional stocks look like they still have a bit of room to fall, I think support for the S&P500 will be found around 4330 but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens on the open later tonight.
Anyway that’s my noobish 2 cents and a bunch of conjecture but it’s good to get my thoughts out of my head.
Would appreciate any feedback or thoughts of your own 😊
Hope everyone has a good week and we see some green candles sooner than later!
So the bearish scenario has played out off the back off a wider risk off event across all markets due to the US fed turning hawkish, I won’t pretend to fully understand the impacts of rate hikes and the like on markets as it’s all new to me and I’m still learning but from what I have gathered the reaction to what will likely be only a tiny rate increase that will be historically low still, even if there end up being multiple this year seems extreme.
This suggests to me that we should see a decent rally after the Fomc meeting later in the week unless the news that comes from that is negative in which case we could see a much larger sell off but I think this is unlikely.
So looking at the charts we find ourselves back at the same Daily Order Block that price found initial support at after the May dump last year, could we see a similar accumulation setup here, where we eventually swing the prior low at 28k before we see any significant upside again?
It would seem the most likely or to at least tag the bottom of the large range at 30k, this would give a higher low but given that we find ourselves in this range I don’t think it matters that much as what is now very clear is that we are in a sideways market and have been for a year now. A move lower below 28k with reclaim with big volume could confirm a Wyckoff spring that could set this up as a huge re-accumulation range.
Another possibility is that the news from this meeting or the one in March is bullish for investors to risk back on, in which case we could see a god candle to the upside. Most would argue that we need to see a re-accumulation before more upside but what I take from the behaviour of large whale accounts is that they have been accumulating since last June/July. That added with the massive amount of short liquidity could see a capitulation to the upside whilst most are calling for a capitulation to the downside.
Further from that point is I have seen many calling for a large capitulation wick with volume like we saw in May to mark the bottom but my reasoning for why I don’t think we see that is the lack of volume overall and the fact that there isn’t as much retail interest compared to May 2021, this whole downside move hasn’t seen any where near as many liquidations even though we have fallen just as far.
I wouldn’t rule 20k out if markets continue to sell off, especially if we loose 28k but I don’t see that happening based on what I see at the moment.
Indicators
RSI – Oversold on 3D, through to 4HR.
There is hidden bullish divergence right up to the monthly chart between the May low and now.
Still yet to see any Bullish divergence lock in on any significant timeframe at current price levels.
MACD –
4HR oversold and flipping green with MACD crossing the signal line, which suggests to me maybe a little relief or more sideways short term.
All higher time frames are red.
Monthly has flipped red and crossing which definitely makes me cautious as this has signalled longer term downtrends in BTC’s history.
Bollinger bands –
We’re outside the bottom of the bands right up to the weekly suggesting we may be at a temporary support area which there is plenty of confluence to think this is so.
The Monthly is at the centre and holding above, I would like to see that hold. In July 2018 the MACD monthly crossed bearish, and price was at the centre of the Bollinger, once the centre was lost in Oct BTC capitulated another 50%.
Ichimoku –
Looks terrible, I’d recommend not looking at it!
I don’t have a great understanding of it as I only use it for added confluence sometimes but since we have been trending sideways for a year, to me this makes the HTF harder to read because from what I understand Ichimoku is better in trending markets but I’m not sure about that, maybe an Ichimoku trader could clarify?
Alts
Not expecting an alt season anytime soon but a few of the Alts I follow that have shown relative strength are
ATOM FFTM LUNA RFOX VRATraditional stocks look like they still have a bit of room to fall, I think support for the S&P500 will be found around 4330 but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens on the open later tonight.
Anyway that’s my noobish 2 cents and a bunch of conjecture but it’s good to get my thoughts out of my head.
Would appreciate any feedback or thoughts of your own 😊
Hope everyone has a good week and we see some green candles sooner than later!
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