Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) Q3 Earnings Preview

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As Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) prepares to report its Q3 earnings today, September 30th, 2024, before the market opens, investors are eager to see if the company can continue its positive momentum. Following a strong Q2 performance where Carnival beat analysts’ revenue estimates by 1.9%, the company has set high expectations for Q3. In this article, we will analyze both the technical and fundamental aspects of Carnival's stock, helping investors understand what to expect and how the market may react.

Q3 Expectations and Broader Market Sentiment
Carnival’s Q2 2024 earnings were a resounding success. The cruise giant reported revenues of $5.78 billion, up 17.7% year on year, surpassing expectations. Passenger cruise days also saw a significant increase, reaching 24.3 million, an 11.5% growth over the previous year. These solid figures reflected the company's resilience and recovery in a post-pandemic environment. For Q3, analysts expect revenues to grow by 14.1% year-on-year to $7.82 billion, albeit at a slower pace compared to the explosive 59.2% growth seen in Q3 2023. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $1.15.

Analysts have largely reconfirmed their estimates for Carnival over the last month, suggesting confidence in the company’s ability to meet its guidance. However, Carnival has missed revenue expectations twice in the past two years, keeping investors cautious. Meanwhile, positive sentiment surrounding the consumer discretionary sector has driven average stock prices up by 4.9% in the past month, with Carnival outperforming the sector, climbing 14.6% over the same period.

In terms of valuation, the average analyst price target for Carnival stands at $28, representing significant upside potential from its current share price of $18.72. With a healthy balance sheet, Carnival is also well-positioned for share buybacks, adding further value to shareholders if management chooses to repurchase shares at attractive levels.

Technical Analysis: A Balanced Picture with Cautious Optimism
From a technical perspective, Carnival’s stock has been in a generally bullish trend, currently trading above its key moving averages. As of this morning’s premarket session, CCL is up 0.86%, showing investor confidence heading into the earnings release. The relative strength index (RSI) for CCL stock stood at 62 last Friday, indicating a positive sentiment but not yet at overbought levels. This suggests that there’s room for further gains if Carnival delivers strong earnings today.

However, there are potential risks on the horizon. The stock has been trading in a rising channel pattern for some time, which is generally bullish, but recent candlestick formations indicate a possible cooldown. This has raised concerns about a near-term correction, especially if earnings disappoint. A negative earnings surprise could trigger a selloff, with the stock potentially dropping back to its recent 1-month lows.

Conversely, a positive earnings beat could drive Carnival’s stock to new highs, pushing past resistance levels and potentially sparking further momentum as institutional investors pile in. The next critical resistance level sits around $22, while support is closer to $16.50.

Industry Tailwinds: Cruise Sector Recovery
Despite short-term technical concerns, Carnival remains well-positioned within the broader travel and cruise industry. Cruise demand has surged in 2024 as pent-up demand from the pandemic has fueled consumer interest in leisure travel. Carnival has capitalized on this by raising its FY2024 guidance and providing optimistic commentary on FY2025. In fact, many of Carnival's peers in the travel and cruise segment have reported similar trends, showing strong demand and improving profitability.

Additionally, inflation has started to ease, and fuel costs, a significant expense for cruise operators, have remained relatively stable. This should benefit Carnival’s operating margins moving forward.

Conclusion
Carnival Corporation’s Q3 earnings report will serve as a critical indicator of the company’s future trajectory. While the company has shown resilience with strong revenue and passenger growth, the market will be watching closely to see if this momentum continues into the latter half of 2024.

From a technical standpoint, the stock appears poised for further gains, but bearish signals warrant caution. A strong earnings beat could push CCL to new highs, but a disappointing report may trigger a near-term pullback. Fundamentals remain solid with promising industry tailwinds and analyst confidence, making Carnival a stock to watch closely in the coming days.

Investors should keep an eye on both the earnings report and the stock’s price action post-release to gauge market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly. Whether Carnival can continue its upward trajectory or faces short-term volatility, one thing is certain: all eyes are on the cruise giant as it sets sail into Q3 earnings.