CHFJPY topping out?
Context: CHFJPY has been contained in a gently upsloping, well-confirmed fork since H2 2008, largely remaining below the median line pre-Abenomics.
See:
in comment.
A rally from the low 80s in summer 2012 is nearing the top of the fork, and has so far failed to convincingly break the CD mid-point (P) of the last ABCD on the weekly chart, closing both below it, and coincident sliding parallel resistance. The modest upward slope of the fork (~1 JPY/year) by comparison with its width (30 JPY) suggests that that it might be worthwhile considering a short position.
=>
A) If CHFJPY slides, short at the weekly P & coincident sliding parallel (107.68), stop loss at the corresponding D 109.66. (It might be possible to find a closer stop position that makes sense based on intraday charts as the opportunity arises.)
or
B) If it meanders unconvincingly towards D of the daily ABCD, the upper MLH should provide strong resistance, justifying a short there 110.2, stop loss above highest sliding parallel (~110.9).
Target: upper quartile (~102.7; it's hard to imagine the BOJ allowing JPY to strengthen enough to take it back to the ML)
R/R ratio - A: 1.9, B: 8.8
Disclosure: I'm making this up as I go along. Feedback welcome, trade at your own risk! Good luck :)
See:
A rally from the low 80s in summer 2012 is nearing the top of the fork, and has so far failed to convincingly break the CD mid-point (P) of the last ABCD on the weekly chart, closing both below it, and coincident sliding parallel resistance. The modest upward slope of the fork (~1 JPY/year) by comparison with its width (30 JPY) suggests that that it might be worthwhile considering a short position.
=>
A) If CHFJPY slides, short at the weekly P & coincident sliding parallel (107.68), stop loss at the corresponding D 109.66. (It might be possible to find a closer stop position that makes sense based on intraday charts as the opportunity arises.)
or
B) If it meanders unconvincingly towards D of the daily ABCD, the upper MLH should provide strong resistance, justifying a short there 110.2, stop loss above highest sliding parallel (~110.9).
Target: upper quartile (~102.7; it's hard to imagine the BOJ allowing JPY to strengthen enough to take it back to the ML)
R/R ratio - A: 1.9, B: 8.8
Disclosure: I'm making this up as I go along. Feedback welcome, trade at your own risk! Good luck :)
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