Crude Oil Breakout Struggling for Follow Through
We started this week off with a massive gap higher from WTI crude, but where is the follow through? The jump from Friday to Monday makes sense on the OPEC production cut news, but the EIA reporting US strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) hit their lowest levels since the week of Nov 25, 1983 barely offers a hiccup of demand-backed bullish interest.
It could be that today's ISM service sector report from the US has revived recession concerns and thereby curbed the demand picture on a higher level, but intraday price action doesn't really give much weight to that view for me. Seeing inside days on very narrow range sessions after a massive gap higher is striking.
Keeping an eye on the 82.50 range high that stretches back to November and then the 38.2% Fib of the bull run from April 2020 low (cutting out the inversion) to June 2022 high at ~83.15. And just above that we have the 200-day SMA at ~84.30.
Are technicals overriding fundamental drive?
It could be that today's ISM service sector report from the US has revived recession concerns and thereby curbed the demand picture on a higher level, but intraday price action doesn't really give much weight to that view for me. Seeing inside days on very narrow range sessions after a massive gap higher is striking.
Keeping an eye on the 82.50 range high that stretches back to November and then the 38.2% Fib of the bull run from April 2020 low (cutting out the inversion) to June 2022 high at ~83.15. And just above that we have the 200-day SMA at ~84.30.
Are technicals overriding fundamental drive?