This is the easiest short you can possibly imagine.

31 thg 7

I am not even going to spend a lot of time on the charts. The fundamentals for this company are abysmal.

Even after the recent declines it still has a PE TTM of 450. That is nearly 10-15x the average PE of any tech giant.

They earn nearly 1.2b a year thus far in cash flow but choose to shell out over half of it in stock based compensation, while diluting shares 4-5%. You can't do both. You can't dilute shares claiming you are doing so to pay staff, while in turn have your executives sell 205 million dollars of shares in eight months (with about 50% of that being the CEO and the director of security). If they truly believed in the growth prospects of this company, they would in turn be buying back shares, not selling them.

If you want to get technical, this stock never had a long period of consolidation from ~80-100/share. It pretty much ran up from 30-60 level and never came back down when it caught the 2020 hype.

If we want to be generous and give this "security" company a bottom to go long, it's 100/share. And that is just because it is the .236 fibonacci level, and it would be hard to say it could go lower than 75% from the highs.

Positions:

November 2024 180 p, 10 contracts @ 3.2/piece (currently up 80%)
September 2024 150p, 5 contracts @ 0.6/piece (currently down 5%)

3 thg 8

Giao dịch được đóng thủ công

Sold today for 7k profit. Was up 11k at the 211 level but I told myself I would wait till EOD to decide my next step. Wish it would've went lower.

This was a very bearish week overall for the markets. We had some rough earnings movements, and with VIX pulling back from 30 and the EOD price movement looking solid for the indexes, I do not think its time to stay short rn.

I sold 3x AMZN 160p for next week and used the $450 premium to buy EOM 300c for CRWD.

CRWD has earnings end of the month and I am expecting after todays doji candle that we can start to finally see a reversal; and the reversal for CRWD will likely be violent heading into earnings.

Overall in this current market I want to stay short. But I think the first big red week is not where you want to stay short. You want to treat it like a diving board. You get a few bounces in before you dive.

I think this week was the first bounce down. Next week we dive up, gauge the levels, and go from there.

Plus I would rather get the opportunity to short CRWD again at 300 than trying to maintain a position at <230 level. Would open up the opportunity to buy way OTM leap puts for pennies and really profit when this thing gets into a real correction.