2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears got follow through down to 18600 where Bulls were eager to buy and not wait for the market to hit the daily 20ema or the bull trend line. That’s strength by the bulls. My target was 18570 and we got 18590, that’s decent enough. The buying in the US session was still surprising to me but then I guess it’s up again. Last stand for the bears is 18740ish where the weekly 50% pullback is but I doubt it can hold.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18600 / 18900
bull case: Bulls bought the double bottom 18600 above the bull channel support line and now they want back up above 18800 and print a new ath. The broad bull channel leads exactly to the ath and leg1 and leg2 were 630 and 550 points big. If we get 500 points up, that would lead us to 19100.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears failed at 18600 and now odds favor the bulls to get back above 18800 again. Can the 50% pb at 18740 or the broken triangle bear trend line act as resistance? I highly doubt that. Got nothing for the bears here.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Bullish if we stay above 18600 for at least 18800 but probably higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Again buying a double bottom at big support on the 1h tf. Bar 8 + 14. Both had bigger tails below and market found not enough sellers below 18600. Had to get long latest bar 17. Buying bar 16 was tough because you would have bought right under the 1h 20ema and previous resistance. Any long below 18600 was king.
comment: Bears got follow through down to 18600 where Bulls were eager to buy and not wait for the market to hit the daily 20ema or the bull trend line. That’s strength by the bulls. My target was 18570 and we got 18590, that’s decent enough. The buying in the US session was still surprising to me but then I guess it’s up again. Last stand for the bears is 18740ish where the weekly 50% pullback is but I doubt it can hold.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18600 / 18900
bull case: Bulls bought the double bottom 18600 above the bull channel support line and now they want back up above 18800 and print a new ath. The broad bull channel leads exactly to the ath and leg1 and leg2 were 630 and 550 points big. If we get 500 points up, that would lead us to 19100.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears failed at 18600 and now odds favor the bulls to get back above 18800 again. Can the 50% pb at 18740 or the broken triangle bear trend line act as resistance? I highly doubt that. Got nothing for the bears here.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Bullish if we stay above 18600 for at least 18800 but probably higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Again buying a double bottom at big support on the 1h tf. Bar 8 + 14. Both had bigger tails below and market found not enough sellers below 18600. Had to get long latest bar 17. Buying bar 16 was tough because you would have bought right under the 1h 20ema and previous resistance. Any long below 18600 was king.
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