ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Points Away From Extension.

30 thg 8, 2017

ETHUSD Update: 390 high has been reached followed by immediate selling back to 365 as bullish momentum continues to flow in this market. The current candle is showing possible signs of a bearish wick, and I am watching this price action carefully.

Momentum and trend are two separate variables when it comes to price action. It is possible to have bearish price momentum within a bullish trend and is essential for a price retrace whether it is major or minor. I don't talk about candle sticks much in my evaluations because often there isn't much to say since the price action is often obvious, but on the 4 hour chart, there is a shooting star that took price back to 365. That may just be noise, but if similar price action appears on this daily chart, then that would be a sign of an oncoming retrace.

The key to observing this is waiting for the candle to close. In this broader time frame, that will be 20:00 or 8 PM EST (UTC -4). At the close, IF the long wick is present, then watch the low of the candle which at the moment is 365. If that breaks, that will indicate bearish momentum and the beginning of a retrace. The first support level I am watching for is 351 which really isn't that far. If price falls through that then 326 is the next area to watch.

The wave count also shows 5 waves and this market came within 2 points of the 1.618 extension of the Wave 1 of this structure. These extensions are often completion points and the confirmation of a bearish candle near this level just adds to the argument. If no bearish candle forms, and price pushes through 392, then this market is more likely to see the 400s, which is great for people that are still long.

Keep in mind, I am not bearish on this market, or trying to fight the trend and especially NOT looking to get short. I buy into weakness and sell into strength (assuming a bullish trend) and for me, highs are places to take profit and not buy. I am just waiting for an opportunity that makes sense to ME, and I am sharing my thoughts. You don't have to agree, or wait it out like me. That is up to you and your trading plan.

In summary, strength continues in this market but we may be closer to a retrace as per the choppy price action from 390 to 365. The wave count and 392 target also adds to the argument. As the market pushes higher, the chance of a retrace increases and I want to stack probabilities in my favor, so I wait. Waiting is not easy, especially with all the noise and hype that is around us at all times. This is why having a trading plan and following it is more important than "catching all the moves".

Comments and questions welcome.