ETH Looking to Go For a Dip

2 thg 4, 2018

* 20 EMA continues to be respected and continues to snake its way down into the flag.
* Bear Flag looking to pop
* H&S inside of the bear flag just finishing the top of the right shoulder.
* Stochastic RSI showing oversold.
* MacD is however bullish.

Projections targeting support at 250 & 300, where I suspect we'll find a land mine of support.

I'm predicting a violent break followed by a an equally powerful impulse up. I sense that a reversal is near.

3 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

20 EMA still holding strong, but BTC trying to break out, raising all tides with it.

Looks like the mapped H&S was actually an Inverse H&S so that gave it a nice push.

really watching to see if we break EMA. That gives rise to 415 a chance.

3 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

The Inverse H&S here I see a target of 430, but there's quite the resistance in between for ethereum.

EMA's Fibs and classic trend lines.

3 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

- 20 Ema broke and is now acting as a support
- stochastic rsi still hanging out in oversold range
- macd bullish and climbing
- bear flag still in shape up to 420.

Was expecting 20 Ema to push everything out of the flag. It hasn't.

4 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Back below the 20 EMA with a sizable drop back down to the bottom of our current flag channel.

We've also completed the right shoulder of a wider H&S that I missed which has a target of $330 and are now forming another bear flag of the last drive.

I would have expected if we were going to go and make a move back we'd do it in this current bar. If we close the next 4hour bar in our current spot, I suspect we'll see further movement down.

9 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

ETH kept its head ahead above water and more even rallied above both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA. It even surpassed expectations and rallied all the way back up to its original its long term support line. This is where shit gets interesting.

It's at the top of the bear flag. If ETH gets above this support the original bear flag idea on the 4H and Daily is dead.


- RSI and Stochatic on the 4H is oversold, but still has room on the daily.
- MacD looking up.
- Right shoulder of the original H&S is higher than the head invalidating the H&S but validating an inverse H&S which has a target potential of mid 460's.
- Volume still seems low overall in BTC and ETH. We're seeing some big buys but they seem to lack conviction to attract many new buyers.

Conclusion:

- We're seeing a lot of signs that are pointing to give up on our original bear flag idea and just waiting for the flag itself to fail or a stronger rally up to really end it.
- To soon to give the Bulls a W on this rally. But they're definitely showing they're not done yet.
- Market is still bearish so hard to change sentiment until we get some clearer signs.
- Getting a reversal doji starting to form right now which could just be the current rally taking a breather or the formation of a bull flag depending on the next doji's size.

Verdict:

The next 2 doji's are keys to know which way we'll want to react.

10 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

I'm about ready to give up on the Daily / 4H Bear Flag and ETH dropping below $355.

- The support has proven resilient so far.
- ETHBTC has been rallying up and challenging and poking out of its downward channel.
- ETH has formed an obvious bear flag on the 4H TF from yesterdays move.

Then again maybe it's this psychology kicking in is exactly the reason not to give up on it? Or is that just blind pride?

The mental self introspective aspects of trading are way more interesting to me than the trading itself.

10 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Just wanted to share an image of the current formations begin watched, particularly
the bear blag inside of the bigger bear flag.

11 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

So an interesting time to watch right now on ETH..

I believe we just got rejected by the resistance at $415 for the fourth time and will now make another trip down to and break out of that bear flag from the 9th
. Once again testing the bottom of our bigger bear flag channel at $372.

The bigger bear flag if that breaks we may once again make a play for $330, but after having watched how well the support at $365 has held and how ETHBTC has risen I'd be somewhat skeptical to see if we even get close to it on this down run.

Other bearish indicators right now are:

- Oversold Stochatic RSI on Daily.
- Death cross on the daily.
- Weak volume.

11 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Looks like ETH is going to tap 430, so much for being stopped at $415.

Looks like we've rallied out of that bear flag.

11 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

The bear flag from the 9th is invalidated.

We haven't yet officially closed over $415, but I suspect we will, considering current pressure.

- Volume is still missing.
- We're still within our big bear flag from 2 weeks ago.
- Curious how we react to the $430 price when we tap the 100 MA.

Psychology of the Bull Trap:
- Looks like the bears are losing steam. Bulls have racked a few successful W's
- Sentiment begins to turn bullish. (Compare number of posts calling Long now vs 3 days ago)

11 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

"Volume precedes price" - Smart People

on the 30M TF

11 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Looks like we're squeezing into a bearish wedge reversal.

11 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

One of the most difficult aspects of trading that I've found so far is trying to decipher my own bias's.

When I'm long - bullish patterns stick out.
When I'm short - bearish patterns.

Part of my study when I go back through this thread is really to figure out which patterns I identified above were me playing to a bias.

11 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

ETH looking to close out the day fighting to break this resistance. It's going up against 4 resistances in my opinion (in order of signifance):

- 100 MA
- A Fib (I lost track after i cleared them which one it was exactly)
- Legacy Support trend line.
- Top of the Bear flag Trend line.

12 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

* Wedge broke upwards.
* Price opened above the 100 MA on 4H TF
* Support isn't broken until second confirmation at least, but for now it looks like Bulls are continuing to control momentum.

Real question is, is this a break out or fake out? Next 4H close will tell all. Definitely a hard place to trade.

12 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

BOOOM goes the dynamite. Nothing like an explosion happening that you didn't anticipate, leaving our rekt corpses all over the field mixed with debris.

I'm not a waver, but the wave count thing was cool + the fact that it corrected to just about where the 4th wave was as per corrective ABC wave theory. (I don't see the ABC waves but eh).

I mean at some point you just need to abandon your idea and this one has failed at all major points sooo consider it dead for now.