Has Interest rates peaked out? India, US, UK, Euro analysis

4 thg 6, 2023

We will be seeing how interest rates have been behaving, has it finally peaked out or is there some steam left?

If you look at India's 10 year Govt. Bond yield it was in a major uptrend untill recently where it has been showing HS pattern and technically it is expected to go down from 6.98% to 6.4%.

But on the other hand if you see US 10 year Govt. bond yield it has also been showing HS pattern (not as perfect as India) but there is a long term uptrend trendline has not been broken. So, in my opinion if the conditions with US is same then it would increase the yield. And a cascading effect on India would be there ramping the yield even higher.

Also,
UK shows signs of increasing interest rates with an inverted HS patter made recently.
Same with Europe as there is increase in yield.

So if the US yields starts peaking out then it is most likely that we will be seeing some downside movement as Nifty and BankNifty are at all time high.