The Secrets to Forex & Miller's Planet (pt.3)

3 thg 2, 2020

You must read the preceding parts first.

This one is a real doozy. Watch your reading comprehension levels go up in realtime.

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"Very, very few people could appreciate the bubble. That's the nature of bubbles – they're mass delusions." - Buffett

Last time we talked about how people who speculate are inherently delusional and are all in the process of losing; usually just money. The only way to 'win at losing' is to survive the delusion game by understanding the players and their psychology; not by guessing if price will be higher or lower in 10 years. When you survive, you are rewarded; all the money from big losers goes to the remaining players at the table. That's the derivatives, near zero-sum market in a nutshell. Sometimes players take their winnings and walk away, sometimes new players join the table. But in the end, 'the bucks are all that matter, everything else is just conversation.' The charts, the econ news, the geopolitical shocks... they only matter insofar as they influence the psychology of the players at the table. This is why you have to align your trading philosophy with player psychology first, and at the same time, reduce your risk presence when you take 'bets' in the market.

Think of 'reducing risk presence' as surviving or holding on and think of 'surviving' as taking a piece of the pie from the losers when they hit zero.

Remember, markets existed long before Adam Smith 'invented' capitalism. The original merchants and traders achieved longterm profitability by two methods: collusion, or by navigating wars, famine, oppression... Things haven't changed as much as you might think.

Chapter 1: The Margin of Psychology

Now, after the 2 parts, you've probably had enough of this distilled pseudo-academic fluff and you're ready for the valuable details.

Too bad chief, here's another fluffy paragraph. Again, get used to losing.

In the last part, I ended it by questioning if disorder can be consistent enough to be orderly. Now, we don't have to assume an orderly interpretation of disorder. It's proven by the presence of profitable traders/investors. The household names like Buffett and Soros. They operated, to a degree, on something investors call a 'margin of safety.'

Which is: 'the intrinsic value versus the current or last price offer.'

This is similar to what I've been presenting all along, only I disregard this Plato-like intrinsic value notion; please refer to my part 2 sectioned 'Emergence of Estimation' and read through 'Fact, Fiction, & Forecast' if you want the full take on this. Using fair value, or the center of price gravity, or more simply: 'resilient value;' especially when we are talking about derivatives and forex, serves as a better frame of mind. Because.. value only exists in the mind in a near zero-sum game. But thanks to psychology, there is some element of order present in the otherwise disorderly markets. You can worry about the ethical issues of big zero-sum money games later, after you can afford to read Das Kapital on your yacht.

Chapter 2: Counting Cost

I have spent a long time trying to find reliable patterns or orderly events in derivative markets. I have used or tested over 3000 indicators, experts, or scripts. So many that my MT4 terminal stopped showing them and I had to start an indicator genocide worthy of a binding UN resolution. Countless all-nighters across both small and large forums evaluating both the popular and wildly unconventional strategies and theories of forex. Books, videos, etc. 4, 5, 6 years and on. The stranger and more contrarian the idea, the more interested I became. More interesting to me than the idea itself was the line of thinking that created the idea in the first place. Why did retail traders think this way? Why did commercial traders think this other way? I was able to both regard and disregard the most qualified, and do the same for the least qualified. It's not a surprising lesson, but you have to go out of your comfort zones and destroy your biases to learn valuable things. Peter Thiel's contrarian thinking runs on this kinda stuff. Think about what has happened in the past several years. Contrarian thinking can turn idiots into geniuses these days.

Chapter 3: Hidden vs Too Close to See

Eventually, I stopped looking for a hidden far-off solution and started looking closer. You ever search your house to find your lost car keys only to later realize it was in your jacket pocket all along? Too poor to have a house, a car, or a jacket? Well, then keep reading.

So I started looking at the in-betweens. What's as close as possible to the decision making agent itself?

The first finding is that charts rarely have clear patterns, but human minds often do. From then on, research became straightforward and fruitful. How do I turn that theory into something that makes money, or at least doesn't lose money? I found the major candidates, the independent variables that create these flashes of order, these predictable events or parameters. It's not perfectly rigid, but its the next best thing in the highly volatile world of forex.

Chapter 4: Executing 66 Orders

First off, it's not as simple as a single mind's biases resulting in huge moves on a chart.

To use a basic military analogy, you have to think in terms of a chain of command. From a few big 'minds' to many small 'minds.' Or, you have to follow the killchain step by step. From psychological origination to execution. Obviously, execution is when the order is filled and liable to p&l. We have lots of charting and analytical tools for market movement and execution. But what is the origination? How do you properly connect them? Can you chart or summarize origination and its 'plane?'

So far I've talked a lot about psychology, but not much about specific biases relevant to forex. Or how a collection of 'psychologies' in the 'real world' might constitute a broader social factor, which, as a unit of analysis, goes on to influence markets in predictable ways. Does a commercial fund have biases? Does a central bank have biases? Does Wall Street have different biases than the City?

Four broad but related questions:

• What is psychological origination and why do social factors matter?
  
  
• Based on the above, how do you setup or build an 'orderly' chart to find that resilient value?
  
  
• How do you use that knowledge to better manage risk and reduce uncertainty?
  
  
• And by extension, how exactly does that make you a more profitable trader?
  

These questions will be fully addressed across the next several parts (maybe 7 or 8 more).

I'm going to skip a deep dive into the first question for now, so you don't get too bogged down on the abstract thinking stuff, and instead mix it a bit with something familiar and more visual in question 2.

For the rest of this article, we gotta talk timeframes and contracts first.

Chapter 5: Murph's Law

Time matters in forex. It matters a lot, and in ways some of you probably have yet to consider. In markets and finance, time shapes the parameters of most contracts. I would use a long analogy from Interstellar and Miller's planet (just watch the movie), but the key here is that: SOME RISK IS NEARLY GUARANTEED (written into the contract) while SOME RISK IS TIED TO SPECULATION ONLY. It's the difference between limited risk that is insured by the past versus unlimited risk that exists only via the future (you can have both as well). Up until now, we have dealt with the second, and not the first. Forex standards and practices (de facto contract rules), give us the first. Let me introduce timeframes, and then return to this so everything connects neatly.

There are many different approaches to categorizing timeframes.

• By the common candlebar duration (1h, 4h, D; in other words it's categorized specifically by the 24hr clock); group A,
  
  
• or by abstract accumulation (like renko or heatmaps or orderbook data); group B.

Now, the latter is a loose fit for a timeframe concept, it can be discrete and confusing, but you can argue 'realtime' or 'all-time' as a timeframe in itself. I won't be discussing realtime very much, and I strongly recommend you read the disclaimer far below if you are a crypto trader or have access to prime data or level two data in general. IF you are a forex trader that fits into group B, let's say a Renko trader, then you need not worry about the indicators or models I present. However, I've only known one successful Renko trader, and he had custom designed analytics. So good luck with Renko, gentlemen.

I will focus on the group A category of timeframes: OHLC, Henken, line, etc. Everything that follows will be based on those.

Chapter 6: Don't Fail Science Class

The more you think of markets by real life principles, the clearer everything becomes. Which is why I want to explain timeframes by analogy. You could argue that markets share some basic similarities, at least from a layman's impression, to classical and quantum mechanics. The smaller the timeframe, the more random and chaotic they appear. And vice-versa. The center of price gravity at higher timeframes is more resilient to chaotic bits of new information. It's more certain. To use Bohm's term, you could argue its 'enfolding' or 'enfolded.' That while the general state of things is a chaotic flowing river, whirlpools with a set of persistent parameters can still exist in those rivers. All this really means is that different timeframes/sessions/days require different indicators and/or applications of those indicators. In addition, a full risk management approach takes into account the pairs/currencies chosen as well since their behavior may vary (choosing the river), and the nature of the contract itself (does it have a waterfall or extend forever?).

Simple summary: some things are more certain at long-term timeframes and some things are more uncertain at short-term timeframes. Most of you will already know this.

Chapter 7: Slaves to the Timezones

When I'm talking about short-term timeframes and long-term timeframes, I mean intra-day versus weekly or monthly. Technically you could trade something like the 4h or daily within a single day. (but to avoid confusion, I want to focus on timeframes as the periods from which you open and close positions, not the duration of the candlebar).

In other words, opening and closing positions within the 24 hour period (from open to market close). Versus. Positions held across multiple days/weeks.

This is very important because they are effectively different types of market contracts because of the risk of rollover. (unless you have an Islamic account)

In general: IF YOU ARE HOLDING POSITIONS ACROSS MULTIPLE WEEKS, you need to have either a genius technical or fundamental system OR, you need to be designing your trades with carry conditions in mind. 99% of you will fit the latter. Inevitably, this means your long term risk management must be quite different than short term risk management; particularly in the weighting of seasonality models and interest rates. I'll explain this stuff in the next article, but for now, make a selection:

Imagine owning a stock that pays you a dividend (😏), now imagine owning a stock that pays no dividend (😴), and now imagine owning a stock where you pay the company a dividend (😂).

Keep your "obvious" selection in mind, because it's gonna upset retail paradigms when I tell you why you're trading the wrong pairs on the wrong timeframes.

See you next time.

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DISCLAIMER:

Now, I should've mentioned this earlier but IF you are a cryptocurrency trader, and some of you reading this may very well be, let this be clear: I did not design these articles for your consumption. Though crypto is arguably a currency, it's core mechanics are different, as is the psychology of the players involved and the market structure. The legal, tax, and broader financial components vary (the nature of the contracts, the timezone/session influences). Indeed, regulation is the main fundamental in cryptocurrency right now, making it a market potentially susceptible to a near-total collapse (at least for blocks of investors) depending on the providence of your broker or income tax obligations.