- During the whole year 2023, the EURCHF pair (usually used as a good risk-on/off barometer for FX) was trading under a bearish trendline, registering lower highs and lows. The long-term trend was then bearish.

- However, since the beginning of 2024 we can notice the appetite for riskier assets has significantly grown as the market as suddenly switched direction to go north following a sharp rebound over the 0.9250 zone.

The market first failed to register a lower market bottom. Then it accelerated upward, leading prices to break their long-term bearish trend line and reach the 0.9775/0.9790 zone, a 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the 2023 bearish trend.
Both moving averages are moving higher, following a bullish cross registered in early March.

However, the RSI indicator has shown a bearish break-out of its own bullish trend, following a bearish divergence (in orange) with the market.

- While the situation remains clearly bullish on the long-term, the signals sent by the RSI just as the market hit a significant resistance level, tells us a short-term bearish correction is now due.
The market could pull-back towards 0.9685, while a deeper correction towards 0.9605 and 0.9538 is possible but unlikely.


Once the correction will be over, the 1.0000/1.0010 level should be seen as the main target for investors.

Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades


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Chart PatternsTechnical IndicatorsTrend Analysis

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