RISK ON, SHORT EURNOK for long term trade

17 thg 10, 2019

Hello fellow traders,
I expect all major markets to trade RISK ON since the FED announced QE 4, ECB starting QE ETERNITY, which is EUR negative, Brexit deal was just announced and optimism over a trade deal between the United States and China has ebbed.

17 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

The algos are still shorting NOK while most other risk-on currencies (AUD, NZD and SEK even) have risen considerably, making this trade less appealing.

17 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

The algos new-found love for the EURO is still pushing this pair up, most likely it will have a big move up the next coming days and come crashing down right after as the ECB QE is starting November 1st.

17 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

Oil is rising, risk-on currencies are rising and safe havens falling, EURNOK is still going higher even though it is considered risk-on trade. It seems the big banks and macro hedge funds know something that others dont.

18 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

Bulls are very confident at the current levels and seems like there is no profit taking so I would not enter right now and would even downsize the trade if you're in it.

18 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

Zooming in there seems to be nothing stopping the bulls, there's a parliament ruling on Brexit on Saturday so probably a big gap up/down will occur when markets open on Sunday night.

18 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

Oil has moved up, but there is no effect on the NOK price and if there is any oil weakness coming I expect this pair to move higher, so the short thesis is invalid for now.

18 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

There is a pretty good reason to think we just put in the high for EURNOR after Draghi's recent remark about overstretched valuations in Europe and a sharp rejection.

21 thg 10, 2019

Ghi chú

EURNOK broke through support and might find the next support zone at 10.15, but the way price action has been past few weeks, it will continue to drop for a couple of days straight.