EUR/USD Forms Bearish Pin Ahead of Key Data
With US inflation data hitting our screens this afternoon and European GDP scheduled for release tomorrow, let's delve into the technical outlook for EUR/USD leading up to these pivotal data releases.
EUR/USD Key Data Releases
Forecasts:
The anticipated outlook includes a softening of the annual inflation rate in the US, expected to decrease to +2.9% from +3.4% in December. On a monthly basis, projections suggest a rise of +0.2% for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI.
Turning to Europe, GDP is forecasted to remain flat for the quarter, while industrial production is expected to contract by -0.2%. Additionally, a positive outlook for quarterly employment is predicted, with an increase of +0.2%.
(Forecasts by Reuters)
EUR/USD Daily Timeframe Analysis
EUR/USD has been carving out a bearish series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows since the turn of the year – taking the market back down to the December support level.
Recent price action has seen EUR/USD undergo a low volatility retracement – forming a small ascending channel.
After four consecutive days of small gains last week, EUR/USD started this week by retesting the top of the channel and then closing lower – forming a bearish pin-bar reversal candle.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
EUR/USD Hourly Timeframe Analysis
Zooming into the hourly candle chart allows traders to pin-point the parameter of the recent consolidation channel. This can be helpful when timing trade entry’s, especially ahead of key data releases.
Given the contracted price and volatility, traders are anticipating a potentially explosive directional move following the upcoming data releases. A break below the channel during today's data could lead to a retest of last week's lows.
EUR/USD Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EUR/USD Key Data Releases
- Tuesday 13th Feb 13:30 (GMT): US Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Jan)
- Tuesday 13th Feb 13:30 (GMT): US Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Jan)
- Wednesday 14th Feb 10:00 (GMT): European Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q4) PREL
- Wednesday 14th Feb 10:00 (GMT): European Industrial Production (MoM)(Dec)
- Wednesday 14th Feb 10:00 (GMT): European Employment Change (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
Forecasts:
The anticipated outlook includes a softening of the annual inflation rate in the US, expected to decrease to +2.9% from +3.4% in December. On a monthly basis, projections suggest a rise of +0.2% for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI.
Turning to Europe, GDP is forecasted to remain flat for the quarter, while industrial production is expected to contract by -0.2%. Additionally, a positive outlook for quarterly employment is predicted, with an increase of +0.2%.
(Forecasts by Reuters)
EUR/USD Daily Timeframe Analysis
EUR/USD has been carving out a bearish series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows since the turn of the year – taking the market back down to the December support level.
Recent price action has seen EUR/USD undergo a low volatility retracement – forming a small ascending channel.
After four consecutive days of small gains last week, EUR/USD started this week by retesting the top of the channel and then closing lower – forming a bearish pin-bar reversal candle.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
EUR/USD Hourly Timeframe Analysis
Zooming into the hourly candle chart allows traders to pin-point the parameter of the recent consolidation channel. This can be helpful when timing trade entry’s, especially ahead of key data releases.
Given the contracted price and volatility, traders are anticipating a potentially explosive directional move following the upcoming data releases. A break below the channel during today's data could lead to a retest of last week's lows.
EUR/USD Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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