EUR/USD weekly technical outlook and review...

5 thg 10, 2015

Weekly view: From this angle, we can see that the EUR/USD remained relatively unchanged last week, closing only a mere fifteen pips higher than the prior weekly close close at 1.1205. Although market action printed a relatively nice-looking selling tail off the underside of supply drawn from 1.1532-1.1278, there’s been very little change seen on this timeframe. For five weeks now this market has been and continues to range around the aforementioned supply area.

Should price break above this zone in the coming week, the next objective to reach can be seen at 1.1745 – an ignored Quasimodo level. On the flip side, a continuation move lower would possibly see prices drive deeper into the weekly range down as far as demand coming in at 1.0519-1.0798.

Weekly levels to watch this week fall in at: 1.1532-1.1278/1.1745.

Daily view: Turning our attention to the daily timeframe shows that price remained confined between supply at 1.1329-1.1269 and support taken from 1.1122 during trade last week. Should weekly sellers muster enough strength from supply this week, we could see this support consumed and price attack demand just below it at 1.1015-1.1076. Not only is this barrier fresh, it also converges nicely with an ascending trendline extended from the low 1.0319. Conversely, a push above the current daily supply may very well force this market to connect with a major swap resistance level at 1.1432 (positioned within the aforementioned weekly supply).

Daily levels to watch this week fall in at: 1.1329-1.1269/1.1432/1.1122/1.1015-1.1076.

4hr view: Friday’s U.S. jobs report showed 142k jobs were added to the economy in the month of September, falling short of the forecasted projection 201k. This, of course, set the EUR on fire! Price bounced from the mid-level support 1.1150, aggressively punching through offers at 1.1200 and 1.1250, before finally reaching fresh supply at 1.1329-1.1301 which saw this market reverse over a 100 pips by the weeks end.

Going forward, little activity was seen during the weekend as the pair began the week calmly with a small twelve-pip gap north at 1.1217 this morning. With regards to today’s upcoming sessions, this market, in our opinion, has the potential to move either way. Just below current price, we have psychological support 1.1200, and below this, there’s an NFP-formed demand sitting at 1.1150-1.1163. Both areas are somewhere an intraday bounce north is possible. However, do take into account that price is still loitering around the underside of weekly supply (see above) so these areas could easily break. Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation here is highly recommended! Furthermore, directly below these two buy zones sits another demand at 1.1105-1.1131, which is certainly an interesting area since it ties in nicely with daily support mentioned above at 1.1122.

Above current price, however, there’s both mid-level resistance 1.1250 and 4hr supply at 1.1329-1.1301 (located within daily supply at 1.1329-1.1269) to consider today. Nevertheless, judging how far price drove into this supply zone on Friday, a ton of supply/offers was likely consumed. As such, should this market rally today/this week, do be prepared for a fake above here to a small fresh supply coming in at 1.1366-1.1349.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.1200 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: depending on where one confirms this level) 1.1105-1.1131 Tentative- confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area) 1.1105-1.1131 Tentative- confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: 1.1250 Tentative- confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area) 1.1329-1.1301/1.1366-1.1349 Tentative- confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms these two areas).