General Market Outlook - July 13th, 2014

13 thg 7, 2014

Opening Remarks:

This is primarily for my new (TradingView) followers but for those of you who have been following my Forex Weekly Analysis since July 2011, you'll recall that I take 2 months off every year, August and December:

- I take August off because it's the end of the summer, trading usually slows down considerably.
- I take December off because it's holiday season, people are usually out spending money rather than trading it.

As such, July 27th, 2014 will be my last analysis for this summer. Between now and then, there will be a total of 3 analysis posted: July 13 (today), July 20 and July 27. After a 4 week leave, I'll be back on August 31st, 2014 to start analyzing markets again.

PS: Due to the lack of market movement and my lack of market exposure, this week's analysis won't be very long. Honestly, I don't even want to post today's analysis, there isn't much to say; markets are just so boring right now.

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Interesting Pairs:

AUD/USD - Bearish

- Price tested a broken trend line this week and proceeded to move down.
- Price may continue moving down to test the 0.9325 level before deciding the next move.

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EUR/USD - Bearish

- Price tested a broken trend line this week and proceeded to move down.
- Price may continue moving down to test the 1.351X level before deciding the next move.

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USD/CAD - Bullish

- Bad CAD employment data acted as a catalyst this week moving USD/CAD up on Friday after building the 1.0620 base from last week.
- Moving forwards, price will have to challenge the broken trend line (blue) before moving up to the meet the upper trend line (magenta)
- If the challenge fails, price will likely trickle back down to the untested 1.06 handle (61.8% fib level)

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USD/JPY - Bullish

- I was wrong about the 102.5X level for potential shorts, it was never reached. As such, I didn't catch the move down this week.
- Moving forwards, price may bounce back up from here after touching the bottom trend line of the downward channel.
- Note: The blue lines are parallel

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Confusing Pairs:

GBP/USD - Bearish??

- Price action is dreadfully boring.
- Considering how long price has stayed up here, bears are definitely bleeding with the majority of their shorts in the red.
- Moving forwards, I personally would rather short closer to the 1.72 or 1.73 levels

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XAG/USD - Bullish??

- What a surprising turn of events with price breaking the the $21 handle.
- Moving forwards, there isn't much resistance until 21.5X and 22.0X.

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Note: Refer to last week's General Market Outlook if something doesn't make sense.

Risk Disclaimer: My analysis is provided solely as an educational tool. Should you decide to trade based on my analysis, do so at your own risk. I am not liable for any loss that you may incur. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Trade Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.