Multi-dimensional view of how we see the Euro

21 thg 4, 2015

Monthly chart: From here, it looks as though the Euro has been in a slow-motion nose dive since 01/05/2014.Current action shows price has pierced a long-term monthly swap level at 1.0640, which as you can see, also boasts long-term trendline convergence (green line) from the low 0.8230 (02/10/2000).

Weekly chart: The weekly scale shows supportive pressure coming in from a weekly demand area at 1.0333-1.0502, positioned just below the aforementioned long-term monthly swap level. Near term weekly resistance comes in at 1.1096.

Daily chart: Price appears to be trading in no-man’s-land between a daily resistance zone at 1.1051-1.0918, and a daily demand area at 1.0461-1.0565, which, if you look at the weekly chart, you’ll notice this area was a reaction from the aforementioned weekly demand area.

4hr chart: During the course of yesterday, the Euro sold off taking out the 1.0700 handle, and driving itself into a minor 4hr demand area at 1.0624-1.0690 where, as you can clearly see, active buyers were waiting. It’s clear to us that we’re in demand on the monthly and weekly scale but with the prevailing downtrend still going strong, it’s quite hard for us to be bullish long-term or even medium-term come to that. On top of this, we have very little direction being seen on the daily chart at the moment. Therefore, our main focus for today, and possibly into the week will be relatively short-term. Going forward, we can see that price has spiked above a minor 4hr swing high at 1.0767, likely flushing out buy stops and clearing the path north to at least the 1.0816 4hr Quasimodo resistance level. Great! We potentially have short-term direction. From here we believe the pair may sell off to collect buyers to push prices higher. We’re currently watching two levels for confirmed buying opportunities:

1. The round number 1.0700. Trade carefully here, as fakeouts tend to happen. Waiting for prices to confirm strength on the lower timeframes would likely be the best path to take here.
2. 4hr demand at 1.0624-1.0690 has likely been taken out, therefore we’re going to be watching the 4hr demand area coming in below at 1.0570-1.0617 (sits just on top of the aforementioned daily demand area, and contains the round number 1.0600). Dependent on how price approaches the zone, we may look to enter at market here.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 1.0700 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 1.0570-1.0617 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0562).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).