The price action in GBPAUD has unfolded precisely as anticipated, reaching the target zone outlined in my previous analysis. For over a month now, this pair has been adhering to an upward trendline, respecting its boundaries with each pullback. However, recent movements suggest that this trendline is now under pressure and may be on the verge of a critical break, potentially triggering a major sell-off.
On the daily chart, the bearish signals are becoming increasingly evident. The price has been consolidating just above the trendline, creating a narrow range that often precedes a decisive breakout. This period of consolidation is especially telling—it reflects a build-up of market indecision and a possible shift in momentum, as bulls lose steam and sellers begin to position themselves for a larger move.
The key resistance zone, where the price is currently hovering, has held strong. Yet, the inability to push higher, combined with the tightening consolidation, points to the likelihood of a breakout to the downside. If the price successfully breaches the trendline, it could lead to an aggressive downward movement as market participants rush to capitalize on the reversal.
My primary target for this potential drop lies at the support level of 1.93080. This level has historical significance, serving as a solid floor in past price action. Given the bearish structure forming, I expect the market to gravitate toward this support zone in the near future. Should the trendline break, it may open the floodgates for sellers, pushing GBPAUD down with considerable momentum. Traders should remain vigilant for confirmation of the breakout, as it could mark the beginning of a strong bearish phase for the pair.
Traders, if you found this idea helpful or have your own insights to share, feel free to drop a comment. I’d love to hear your thoughts!