GBP/USD: The weight of evidence approach

Hôm qua

There are always reasons not to take a trade.
You have to take a 'weight of evidence' approach - and you'll still often be wrong ;)

The idea: Trade GBP/USD short on a daily close below critical support. Looking for 2:1 RR

Reasons for:

• Trend is lower (falling fractals / price below the 50 DMA)
  
• Momentum is to the downside (MACD below zero)
  
• If the break holds, then long term trend has turned to a downtrend, adding more force to the short term downtrend.
  

Reasons against:

• Already had a big move lower
  
• Longer term trend has been up - this maybe an exaggerated pullback.
  

The nice thing about trading, you don't have to stay wrong.
If this breakdown trade fails - it tells us the market has strength.
So then we can wait to trade a break above resistance or a fractal