Lower trend-line break. Strong chance of a price bounce to around the lower trend-line before commencing a steep decline to potentially make a 1:1 extension of wave A (primary) which would put the price down to $505 over the next 2 to 4 years.
As this is a long timeline and a significant drop, I would tend to lock in profits along the way - as a full 1:1 extension may not be achieved and wave 2 and 4 corrections may complex, significant in size, and slow.
If further confirmation is needed: a short trade can be entered on a break below $1045 (as that will confirm a >100% retracement of the weak corrective move (from 2016 to the present) and point to a significant correction.
There is potential for gold to become bullish if the 2016 to present up-move emerges as a leading first wave diagonal - which will still be on the table if price remains above $1045 and then rallies. In this scenario a break above $1355 would indicate strong support for the view that prices can reach $1660+ in the medium term.
Personally, I am backing the short view and believe it is more likely that the 2016 to present move was a weak corrective abc move that comes half-way into the retracement of the 2011 highs and that the gold price will return to near pre-2011 run-up levels (despite quite a lot of geopolitical uncertainty).
I am not a professional and am sharing my own Technical Analysis (100% TA and no fundamental analysis undertaken) primarily to further my own education. I do not relish the thought of the economic pain that my view entails in regards to the gold mining industry and investors. Personally, I have recently become somewhat of a gold bug due to my involvement with cryptocurrency and declining faith in the fiat monetary system, and am looking to invest in physical gold but am waiting for the right price before going long.
As this is a long timeline and a significant drop, I would tend to lock in profits along the way - as a full 1:1 extension may not be achieved and wave 2 and 4 corrections may complex, significant in size, and slow.
If further confirmation is needed: a short trade can be entered on a break below $1045 (as that will confirm a >100% retracement of the weak corrective move (from 2016 to the present) and point to a significant correction.
There is potential for gold to become bullish if the 2016 to present up-move emerges as a leading first wave diagonal - which will still be on the table if price remains above $1045 and then rallies. In this scenario a break above $1355 would indicate strong support for the view that prices can reach $1660+ in the medium term.
Personally, I am backing the short view and believe it is more likely that the 2016 to present move was a weak corrective abc move that comes half-way into the retracement of the 2011 highs and that the gold price will return to near pre-2011 run-up levels (despite quite a lot of geopolitical uncertainty).
I am not a professional and am sharing my own Technical Analysis (100% TA and no fundamental analysis undertaken) primarily to further my own education. I do not relish the thought of the economic pain that my view entails in regards to the gold mining industry and investors. Personally, I have recently become somewhat of a gold bug due to my involvement with cryptocurrency and declining faith in the fiat monetary system, and am looking to invest in physical gold but am waiting for the right price before going long.
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Thanks everyone. This is my newest and already most viewed post. I will do a few more medium-term analyses.