Technical view, not fundamental/sentiment speculations.
What is apparent in this ew count is:
- nice w5ext=w1+w3 ratio (12229/12222)
- perfect 1-3-5 line fit of w3
- and 1-2 (yellow), 3-4(blue) internal alternations.
Also, the selloff started after breaking ew2-4 line parallel to ew1-3 line of w3 - red arrow breaching green channel.
Now, the w4 reached the 23.6 retracement 11644 and another ew2-4 line parallel to ew1-3 line of whole W5 (or W5.1) - violet. Fast cci is showing bullish divergence.
I am not sure if flat abc structure has been finished already (it could be that only w3 of wave c is finished).
It is very possible, that abc flat could be just first wave of bigger wxy correction. In that case the bigger timeframe will overrule this picture and w4 would extend lower - after retracing a little and forming wave x.
Watching 11600 and violet channel for flat completion, then wave x (shortable at its end). I would expect, that ew2-4 violet line could hold a little and will not be broken straight at first touch - but anything can happen - like huge Greece gap down or whatever.
Longterm supports are at 11250, 10750 and 10094, fib retracements at 11180, 10800, 10430.
What is apparent in this ew count is:
- nice w5ext=w1+w3 ratio (12229/12222)
- perfect 1-3-5 line fit of w3
- and 1-2 (yellow), 3-4(blue) internal alternations.
Also, the selloff started after breaking ew2-4 line parallel to ew1-3 line of w3 - red arrow breaching green channel.
Now, the w4 reached the 23.6 retracement 11644 and another ew2-4 line parallel to ew1-3 line of whole W5 (or W5.1) - violet. Fast cci is showing bullish divergence.
I am not sure if flat abc structure has been finished already (it could be that only w3 of wave c is finished).
It is very possible, that abc flat could be just first wave of bigger wxy correction. In that case the bigger timeframe will overrule this picture and w4 would extend lower - after retracing a little and forming wave x.
Watching 11600 and violet channel for flat completion, then wave x (shortable at its end). I would expect, that ew2-4 violet line could hold a little and will not be broken straight at first touch - but anything can happen - like huge Greece gap down or whatever.
Longterm supports are at 11250, 10750 and 10094, fib retracements at 11180, 10800, 10430.