HSI - Light at the end of the tunnel

12 thg 7

After 5 years of bear market, could we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel ? Possible. With this recent drastic measures , it becomes almost impossible to short the market and it leaves only those who are keen to LONG the market to come in. The short sellers, be it institutional or retail investors probably have to go elsewhere....

Those who are keen on longing the HSI index can go try the 2800 ETF which mainly comprises of tech stocks, property developers and financial institutions. Of the 3 sectors, I am bullish on the first and last but remain cautiously optimistic on the property developers.......

While there are ongoing and more measures coming up to combat the falling prices, the consumer confidence is sorely lacking. What we are seeing are the ultra rich picking up the high end properties at discounted price but those who in need of a home are still very concerned about the interest rates (Hong Kong mortgage rate is pegged to the US dollar) and until the FED starts to cut rates, this sitting on the fence approach may last for a while more, imo.

We must not forget the unemployment rates remain high as well as many graduates have yet to find jobs and with AI, robotics, etc becoming more mainstream, we can expect more manual type of work to be partially or fully replaced.

Already, we are seeing the Baidu robo taxis creating a scene in many cities that are being rolled out with the local Uber/Grab taxi drivers protesting..... If lesser people are booking the apps, then they have to work even longer hours to cover their fixed operational costs (rental of vehicles, diesel , operating costs ,etc)

The retail scene are not doing much better with many owners unable to continue their business due to consumers not spending enough or choosing to buy online from T mall, PDD, Shein, etc. And that has created another big opportunity for the livestream business where anyone can become a host to peddle their products - beauty, agricultural, cosmetics, etc.

All eyes are also on the upcoming Plenary meeting where the officials of the CCP will congregate and set the goals for the coming years and dish out new policies, incentives, etc to pull up the struggling sectors. With such low interest rates, business owners are not enticed to borrow as demand remains weak and consumers choosing to shop thriftily.

Let's hope more good measures will come up sooner than later........

24 thg 9

Ghi chú

likely to retrace to 18000 before going higher , i hope

2 thg 10

Ghi chú

taking a step back, my analysis was right though the timing was not........