Is Eli Lilly's Stock in a Bubble or just a Correction?

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Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) has been a standout performer in the stock market this year, with its stock price surging by around 50%, far outperforming the S&P 500’s 15% rise. This impressive performance has brought the stock to trade at 63 times its projected 2024 earnings of $13.75 per share. This raises a critical question for investors: Is Eli Lilly's stock overvalued, or is there still room for growth?

Stellar Growth Driven by Innovative Drugs
Eli Lilly's recent surge can be attributed primarily to the high demand for its obesity drug, Zepbound, and its diabetes drug, Mounjaro. These two drugs alone are expected to bring in $50 billion in annual peak sales. The company is currently facing a shortage of Zepbound and plans to invest $9 billion in a new manufacturing facility to meet this demand.

Additionally, Eli Lilly’s pipeline is extensive, with several drugs under clinical trials across various therapeutic areas. One notable approval is Donanemab, an Alzheimer's Disease treatment, which could generate $5 billion in peak sales. Other successful drugs, such as Verzenio and Zyprexa, also contribute to the company’s robust revenue growth.

Financial Performance and Future Projections
Eli Lilly's revenue is projected to grow from $34 billion in 2023 to over $60 billion by 2026, representing an increase of over 75%. The company's earnings are also expected to more than triple during this period. Despite a 12% decline in net income from $6.2 billion in 2020 to $5.2 billion in 2023, mainly due to increased non-operating expenses and acquisitions, the adjusted net income margin is poised for a rebound.

In Q1 2024, Eli Lilly (LLY) reported an adjusted net margin of 26.6%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year. The company’s investments in R&D and product development are starting to pay off, and adjusted earnings are expected to range between $13.50 and $14.00 per share in 2024, more than double the previous year.

Considering these projections and expected margin expansions, Eli Lilly’s adjusted EPS could reach $25 by 2027. If the stock price remains constant, the forward P/E multiple would decrease to 34x in 2026. However, investors are betting on the stock price increasing, resulting in a more modest P/E contraction to about 52x. This scenario would imply a 50% growth in Eli Lilly's stock price to approximately $1,300 over the next three years.

Risks and Competition
Despite the positive outlook, Eli Lilly faces risks, particularly from increasing competition in the obesity drug market. Competitors like Novo Nordisk, Roche, and Amgen are also making strides in weight-loss treatments. However, the obesity drugs market is projected to grow 16-fold to over $100 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk likely dominating this space.

Is Eli Lilly's Stock in a Bubble?
The term "bubble" implies a scenario where asset prices are inflated beyond their intrinsic value, often driven by speculation and a belief that prices will never fall. While Eli Lilly’s stock has seen tremendous gains, rising 656% over the past five years compared to the S&P 500’s 78.4% increase, it does not necessarily mean it is in a bubble. Eli Lilly’s rise is backed by strong fundamentals, significant revenue growth, and promising developments in its drug pipeline.

Conclusion
Eli Lilly’s stock is not just a result of speculative trading; it is supported by solid business performance and growth prospects. While there are competitive risks, the company’s innovative drug portfolio and strategic investments position it well for continued success. Any dip in Eli Lilly’s stock should be seen as a potential investment opportunity, offering robust long-term gains. The next few years will likely see Eli Lilly continue its upward trajectory, driven by market share gains and regulatory approvals.